\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 916 Shennan Circuits Co.Ltd(002916) )
Key investment points
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 13.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and the performance was in line with expectations.
The PCB sector grew steadily, and the packaging substrate and electronic assembly business achieved rapid growth. 2021:1) from the revenue side, the company’s PCB business achieved a revenue of 8.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, accounting for 62.7%; The packaging substrate business achieved a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%, accounting for 17.3%, an increase of 4pp compared with 20 years; The revenue of electronic assembly business was 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.2%, accounting for 13.9%, an increase of 3.9pp compared with 20 years. 2) From the profit side, the company’s net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 was 1.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; The gross profit margin was 13.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8pp; The net interest rate was 10.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7pp, and the profit was under pressure in the short term. 3) From the expense side, the company’s sales expense ratio was 1.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2pp; The management expense ratio was 3.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pp; The R & D expense ratio was 5.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1pp.
The communication market is stable, and the downstream applications blossom at multiple points. The communication market has always been the key downstream application of the company’s PCB and electronic assembly sector. During the reporting period, although the demand of China’s communication market slowed down, the company still maintained a stable share in the client with the industry-leading technical strength and efficient and high-quality service ability, and won high praise from customers. In addition, the company continued to strengthen the development of non communication market and made great breakthroughs in data center, automotive electronics and other markets. During the reporting period, the company’s orders in the field of PCB business data center increased by 45% year-on-year, and the orders in the field of automotive electronics increased by 150% year-on-year, which has become a new growth point of the company’s revenue.
The packaging substrate business grew rapidly and continued to strategically layout new production capacity. Benefiting from the global semiconductor high-profile, the packaging substrate business of the company achieved rapid growth during the reporting period, and the product structure was further optimized. Among them, storage substrates made significant breakthroughs in technical capacity, customer development and capacity release, and the annual orders increased by 140% year-on-year. The company continues to increase the capacity of packaging substrate and plans to invest 6 billion yuan to build a packaging substrate factory in Guangzhou, mainly for fc-bga, RF and fc-csp packaging substrates; Wuxi high-end flip chip IC carrier product manufacturing project plans to invest 2.02 billion yuan, and it is expected that 2022q4 can be connected and put into operation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company’s EPS will be 3.58/4.44/5.19 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 26 / 21 / 18 times respectively. Considering the leading position of the company in China’s PCB board and the continuous increase of high-end packaging substrate production capacity, the competitiveness of the company is expected to be further improved and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; The global covid-19 epidemic has repeatedly brought fluctuations in downstream demand.
