\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Event 1: on March 16, the company announced that it plans to invest in two new 1200t / D photovoltaic glass production lines in Sabah, Malaysia. The total investment of the project is 3.12 billion, and the construction period is expected to be 16 months. At the same time, in order to ensure the sand demand and supply safety of overseas photovoltaic glass production lines, the company decided to simultaneously invest in the construction of an annual output of 1.2 million tons of super silica sand production base in Sabah, Malaysia. The total investment of the project is planned to be about 850 million yuan.
Event 2: the company plans to invest in the construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in the developable roofs of Zhejiang Changxing, Hunan Liling, Tianjin, Hunan Zixing and Fujian Zhangzhou production bases. The total installed capacity of the project is 143.02 MWP, the total investment is expected to be 490 million yuan, and the construction period of the project is expected to be 6 months.
Event 3: in order to speed up the construction of photovoltaic industry projects, the company plans to increase the capital of Chenzhou photovoltaic with its own funds, Chenzhou photovoltaic will increase the capital of its wholly-owned subsidiaries with its own funds, and some subsidiaries of Chenzhou photovoltaic will increase the capital of their subsidiaries to ensure the project construction funds. The target companies of this capital increase include nine wholly-owned subsidiaries (grandchildren), of which the total capital increase to Chinese subsidiaries (grandchildren) is 2.22 billion yuan, and the registered capital after the capital increase to Sabah photovoltaic and Sabah ore in Malaysia is 1.44 billion yuan and 430 million yuan respectively.
Comments: the continuous expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity and the extension of industrial chain are conducive to further enhance the comprehensive competitiveness. According to the company’s investor interaction platform, the company’s 2500t / D ultra white floating photovoltaic glass production capacity has been converted to production by the end of 21, and the construction of five 1200t / D calendering production lines has been orderly promoted. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, we expect to put into operation 1 / 4 production lines respectively by the end of 22h1 / 22. The construction period of two 1200t / D production lines in Malaysia is 16 months. We expect the actual performance contribution time to be from the end of 23 to the beginning of 24. After all production lines are put into operation, the company has a total capacity of 10900d / T photovoltaic glass outside China, and the capacity scale will rank among the first echelon of the industry. The company has obvious advantages. On the one hand, the company actively arranges silica placer. In addition to the supply of super white quartz placer with an annual output of 576000 tons in Zixing, Hunan, the supporting construction of the project with an annual output of 1.2 million tons in Malaysia will further improve the supply guarantee of raw materials for photovoltaic glass production, and is expected to continuously reduce the procurement cost; On the other hand, in addition to changing production lines, the company’s photovoltaic glass production capacity is 1200t / D kiln furnace. With the investment and construction of two 1200t / D production lines in Malaysia, the company’s scale effect is expected to further play, and the ton cost is expected to remain at the level of first-line manufacturers. In addition, the company’s construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in several production bases is also conducive to promoting the downstream business expansion of photovoltaic glass, optimizing the company’s energy use structure and reducing power consumption costs. Overall, the company’s series of investment and construction measures are conducive to strengthening the company’s comprehensive competitive strength in the photovoltaic industry and building the photovoltaic glass industry into the company’s second growth curve.
Investment suggestion: in view of the impact of fluctuations in raw material costs, we raised the company’s float glass cost assumption. After adjustment, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years is predicted to be 4.30/39.0/4.65 billion (original value 4.30/45.7/51.7) billion, corresponding to the current share price PE of 8 / 8 / 7 times. Considering the long-term growth of the company, we maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; The new production capacity is less than expected; The expansion of new products was less than expected.
