\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Event: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.969 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.246 billion, a year-on-year increase of 114.35%; The sales collection was 6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89%, and the net operating cash flow was 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 123%.
The income growth is highly sustainable, and the employee incentive is significantly improved. According to the announcement, the revenue of 21q4 company was 1.362 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 276 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. The revenue growth was highly sustainable, and the profit was affected by the cost side and expense side, with a small increase. On the one hand, the company added nearly 1300 production personnel to 3415 in 2021, and the production labor cost increased by 209% year-on-year; On the other hand, due to the company’s annual payment collection exceeding the expectation and reaching the challenge target, the amount of bonus payment under the three-level target assessment is large, the salary of the chairman and general manager is nearly doubled compared with that in 2020, and the employee salary in the management expenses is 346 million, with a year-on-year increase of 120%, and it is paid more in the fourth quarter, which shows that the 21q4 management expense rate increases by 5.9pct to 16.2% year-on-year. At the same time, the company added about 200 to 1548 new salespeople. Among the sales expenses, the employee salary was 310 million, with a year-on-year increase of 94%. The average salary of salespeople increased from 120000 to 200000, and continued to invest in brand high potential energy publicity. The sales expense rate of 21q4 increased by 2.65 PCT to 19.67% year-on-year. On the whole, the company paid 790 million in cash to and for employees throughout the year, an increase of 360 million year-on-year. In addition, the employee salary payable at the end of the period was 280 million, an increase of 110% year-on-year. We expect to include some of it in the expenses of 22q1.
The dual brand strategy was effectively implemented, and the recovery of production capacity was accelerated. In 2021, the company sold 8054 tons of shede series, with a year-on-year increase of 60%, and 31082 tons of Tuopai series, with a year-on-year increase of 192%. On the basis of focusing on the creation of large single products, the company strengthened the cultivation of advantageous market atmosphere, steadily implemented the “shede + Tuopai” dual brand strategy, and accelerated the revival of Tuopai. According to the announcement, the company’s medium and high-grade liquor (shede, Tuopai Tianqu) achieved a revenue of 3.874 billion, a year-on-year increase of 82%, and the revenue of low-grade liquor (Tuopai Daqu, Gaoguang bottle, etc.) was 703 million, a year-on-year increase of 219%. Among them, the gross profit margin of medium and high-grade liquor increased from 86.3% to 87.3%, and that of low-grade liquor increased from 41.7% to 49.8%. Due to the increase in the proportion of low-grade liquor revenue, the gross profit margin of liquor decreased by 0.6pct to 81.5% year-on-year. In addition to liquor revenue, the company has another 357 million glass bottles revenue. With the increase of the proportion of liquor revenue, the overall gross profit margin increased from 76% to 78% and the net profit margin increased from 22.5% to 25.6%. In order to strengthen the guarantee of quality and supply, Fosun took the restoration of the old cellar as the top strategy after taking the ownership. In 2021, the actual production capacity of the company was 42700 tons, which was significantly higher than 18000 tons in 2020, and the design production capacity increased from 43000 tons to 60000 tons.
The channel continues to be optimized and the strong market is stronger. In 2021, the company added 491 dealers in the whole year, including a net decrease of 24 in the province and a net increase of 515 outside the province. By the end of the period, there were 2252 dealers, and the national layout was accelerated. At present, the company has established a customer access and exit evaluation mechanism, and the number and quality of customers have been significantly improved, which is consistent with our previous prediction. In 2021, the average dealer scale of the company exceeded 2 million, with a year-on-year increase of 52%. The old market and old dealers have recovered significantly, and the construction of excellent business has been effectively implemented. Through the establishment of eight shared warehouses and the reduction of dealers’ single payment requirements, the company has reduced dealers’ capital occupation, improved dealers’ profitability, continuously improved dealers’ satisfaction and further consolidated manufacturers’ relations. According to our research, the deep ploughing construction of the company’s core markets Sichuan Hebei Shandong Henan, northeast and northwest has made an effective breakthrough, the strong market scale has been further improved, and the momentum of nationalization has continued to be strong.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company’s EPS to be 5.77, 8.03 and 10.42 yuan / share from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: repeated epidemics lead to the slowdown of mobile sales; The nationwide expansion was less than expected.
