Yuanda: Why did the gem refresh its low point again and adjust the market?

today's disk

Today, the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes continued to show a pattern of shock adjustment. The three major indexes opened low and went low, continuing yesterday's weak pattern. Among them, the gem index fell by more than 2%, breaking the recent low.

From the industry sector growth ranking, cloud games, rental and sale rights, games, insurance, prefabricated vegetable concept, dairy industry, banks, shipping ports and other sectors led the increase, while wind power equipment, traditional Chinese medicine, exclusive drugs, 3D cameras, hair medicine and other sectors led the decline. As of the issuance, the number of gainers is less than 1000 and the number of losers is more than 3500, with a very poor profit-making effect. Northbound funds net bought more than 1 billion.

message interpretation

According to the data of American Intercontinental Exchange (ice), on January 4, Beijing time, European natural gas prices rose by more than 9% and British natural gas prices rose by 21%.

Ice data show that the price of natural gas delivered in the summer of 2022 has exceeded 100 euros / megawatt hour, a new high in this period.

Huachuang Securities believes that the European and American governments have not taken strict measures to ban the Omicron virus, and European natural gas has reached a new high under the conditions of nuclear power maintenance + Russian gas stop transmission + rising demand in cold winter. The US LNG ship turned to Europe, but if Europe does not solve Russia's relations, it is difficult to fundamentally ease the European gas crisis.

Therefore, we believe that the energy supply is still tight and the price rise logic is still catalyzing opportunities in this direction. Therefore, the leading opportunities in subdivided areas deserve attention.

should focus on strategies and directions

The continuous adjustment of the market is mainly due to the "abnormal" net return of 460 billion from the central bank after the holiday, which reduces the expectation of easing in the first quarter, which is not conducive to the continuous launch of the market; In addition, the growth direction represented by new energy vehicles and profit taking of related overvalued varieties exacerbated the weakness of the gem. Therefore, at present, it is in the stage of digesting high valuation on the gem, and the financial weight plays an obvious role in protecting the main board. It is recommended to wait patiently for the warming signal in the later stage of the policy. At the same time, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the spring market, control the position and wait for the opening opportunity after the adjustment. The overall position continues to be controlled within 30%.

(Yuanda)

 

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