I. there may be deviations in market views
The market index is still weak due to the impact of institutional selling pressure. Although the theme of risk preference is impacted by the emotional impact of institutional smashing, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect has not been significantly driven. It is expected that after the release of structural risks, it will bring operating space for the medium-term rebound in the next stage.
II. Market sentiment monitoring
Good track decision express sentiment index is currently reading 50, in the shock zone. The geihe sentiment index has fallen from its high on January 4, and the recent stock index is mainly analyzed by range shocks, which means that the current market sentiment has become more and more cautious. From the perspective of behavioral analysis, when market sentiment is cautious, it means that investors have low willingness to participate in trading. When the sentiment index is in the shock zone, investors are advised to wait patiently for the market direction [refer to the instructions for the use of sentiment index] (update time: 2022-01-05).
III. deviation analysis
At the plate level today, the drag on the index caused by yesterday's institutional leading plate smashing (automobile chip, fluorine concept, gallium nitride, lithium ore, charging pile, new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, national defense and military industry, etc.). In the case of institutions continuing to smash the plate, the rising strength of yuanuniverse, prefabricated dishes and the concept of Winter Olympics also cooled to varying degrees. From the perspective of technical psychological analysis, it shows that the killing and falling behavior of institutions has had an impact on the speculation of risk preference funds. Therefore, it is not ruled out that there is a risk of short-term follow-up in the subject matter.
From the perspective of actors, we believe that the current adjustment is mainly dominated by the stampede behavior after the centralized shareholding of institutions. In fact, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect and risk preference funds have not followed the trend at too large a level. The core is that the allocation funds represented by Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect have been constantly rebalancing their positions since the fourth quarter of last year, so there is no urgency to follow the trend. Therefore, it is still emphasized that the decline and stabilization of institutions is an important concern signal for the gradual stabilization of the market in the next stage.
On the whole, our view is that the current market is mainly dominated by the decline at the institutional level. To a certain extent, this also means that the institutional level's concern about overvaluation in the core direction of the boom has been released to a certain extent. From the perspective of the middle line or the left, this reduces the systemic risk of the market, or opens the air conditioner for a new round of medium-term market opportunities. This is the thinking angle that we think deserves attention at present.
(Bandung securities network)
