On Wednesday, the A-share market fell sharply, and high valuation varieties such as green power, chips and military industry were "pounded". However, undervalued and low-end stocks that remained depressed in the early stage, such as household appliances, real estate, finance and other varieties, rose against the market.
It seems that the defensive mentality of the short-term A-share market is becoming stronger and stronger.
the industrial logic is weakened
There are two commonalities of overvalued varieties. One is that the stock price has increased greatly and the stock price is at a high level some time ago; Second, the valuation is high, because the short-term increase far exceeds the performance growth. This brings two unfavorable factors: one is that there are many profit chips; The two is that the valuation bubble appears. Once there is some noise in the industrial logic level, it will lead to big cash in the profit chips, and then make the stock price return to a mean.
Recently, high and overvalued varieties have been affected by some information at the industrial level. For example, the subsidy for new energy vehicles has declined, and the price of power battery raw materials has continued to rise, which has put pressure on the profits of the middle and downstream industries, resulting in cracks in the industrial logic of the new comprehensive energy main line with green power as the core, and great changes in the shareholding mentality.
Reflected in the disk, the stocks of wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy power industries continued to adjust in two trading days in 2022, which led to market participants' concerns about the whole overvalued varieties. The overvalued varieties appeared domino effect, one by one moving towards the ranks of stock price diving. On Wednesday, not only the green power varieties fell sharply, but also the chips High valuation varieties such as military industry also fell sharply.
or new hot spots will emerge
Since most of these stocks are heavy positions of institutional funds, the recent continuous adjustment, especially the large-scale decline on Tuesday and Wednesday, means that the overvalued value in the hands of institutional funds and the chips of core track stocks are reduced. Correspondingly, their capital positions are gradually increasing and abundant. At this time, in addition to keeping part of the institutional funds to pay dividends, they may think about how to turn the cash position into a new high-quality chip.
After all, although the industrial logic of the core track stocks in the current A-share market has deteriorated, the overall environment and logic of the whole A-share market have not fundamentally changed. For example, the logic of vigorously developing the capital market is the logic of guiding social wealth to allocate equity assets. For another example, the logic of liquidity is still strong, and the interest rate in the bill market even tends to zero. In this context, the chips of high-quality equity assets with positive returns are the most high-quality assets, which will be concerned and valued by more social capital. In this way, the position of institutional funds after reducing their holdings of core track stocks will not leave the capital market, but will continue to stay in the capital market to look for new potential investment opportunities.
This has been proved in the deduction process of the A-share market in the past two or three years. Every wide shock and every turn of the investment main line mean that a new investment direction is brewing. Just like the wave of core asset stocks from 2019 to 2020, after the shock in February and March 2021, the main line of core track stocks of chip and automobile electrification quickly appeared. After the shock in August and September 2021, there are auto parts, green power main line and meta universe main line. Therefore, after the shock of core track stocks in early 2022, new investment hotspots will also appear.
Therefore, in the current A-share market, the consideration is not that the index will have a large falling space (after all, A-shares have no systematic risk), but to judge and speculate where the new positions of institutional funds will flow? At present, incremental industries such as prefabricated vegetables and yuanuniverse can be expected, and the trend of automobile electrification and intelligence is also obvious. It is not ruled out that after the shock, the old hot spots will bloom. Therefore, in operation, it is still appropriate to maintain a high position, and increase efforts to study and judge the new flow direction of capital position.
(surging News)
