Today (January 5), the three major A-share indexes opened low and further weakened. The Shanghai index still repeated intraday, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and the gem index showed a pulse downward pattern, and the market differentiation was more prominent. From the disk perspective, the industry and concept sectors fell more and rose less, banks, securities companies and other major financial sectors showed signs of supporting the market, the targets such as household appliances, real estate and pork were relatively resistant to decline, the performance of sports, yuanuniverse and other sectors was prominent, and the local profit-making effect was general.
Anxin securities mentioned that it firmly believes that we should not be pessimistic at present, and we need more patience in the bottom grinding stage. At present, the market is optimistic about the structural market, and we should be more optimistic about the index after the Spring Festival. In terms of style, we believe that the trend of steady growth for quite a long time to come is clear. In the game of fundamental expectations under the steady growth policy, the market will eventually stand on the side of the policy. We predict that the GDP growth rate next year will pick up compared with the second half of this year, and the "economic bottom" may occur in the second quarter of next year, This determines that the mid-term swing back probability of the CSI 300 index is large, and the style will be further balanced.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme one] meta universe
Open source Securities said that the conceptual framework of metauniverse and its representative direction of the Internet may have become a market consensus. At present, the investment layout should give more consideration to its landing path and commercialization feasibility. Based on this, we once again suggest to focus on four main lines: Open World Games and UGC game platform, virtual human, VR / Ar / MR and NFT.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that the main line of metauniverse technology is promising in 2022. Specifically, the release of industrial policies is good, and the prospect of virtual human is worth looking forward to. We believe that the current technologies related to virtual human (motion capture, expression capture, real-time rendering, etc.) are relatively mature, the existing technical barriers show a downward trend, and there is still more room for the commercial application scenarios of related products; As one of the important applications in the virtual reality industry, virtual human is expected to enjoy the dividend release period brought by favorable policies. With technology upgrading, downward cost and large-scale volume, the application scenario of virtual human may expand from tob end to TOC end.
In addition, the game market continues to expand, and the industry policy has gradually bottomed out, waiting for the release of a new round of edition numbers. The introduction of the new anti addiction regulations for minors is more based on the protection of teenagers' health than on a specific game company. Stricter industrial policies will help the industry to be more standardized and transparent, and effectively protect the physical and mental health of teenagers from a correct perspective. In the medium and long term, it is conducive to the sound development of the whole industry.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, under the potential long-term industrial trend of yuancosmos, after the industrial policy bottoms out, it is recommended to pay attention to the rich product reserves in the game field, the high probability of fund explosion Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) and Hubei Century Network Technology Inc(300494) of "Internet marketing + game" two wheel drive and cloud game technology; The field of virtual human focuses on Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) with rich content reserves, strong IP operation capability and outstanding virtual reality technology.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that metauniverse is expected to continue to catalyze plate performance. 1) VR and other hardware equipment experience continues to improve, the price continues to decline, 5g, cloud computing, blockchain and other infrastructure are gradually mature, and the content and application ecology are also developing rapidly driven by hardware and infrastructure; 2) "Media is information", as a more immersive and abundant media form, the meta universe will inevitably bring greater impact and reconstruction of human society and economy; With the acceleration of hardware and infrastructure, metauniverse is expected to mature at a faster speed. And bring new opportunities in platform ecology, hardware requirements, infrastructure, content form, etc; Driven by the head organization, the industrial ecology is expected to accelerate the landing and continue to catalyze the performance of the sector. []
[Topic 2] home appliances
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that due to weak terminal demand and rising raw material prices, the traditional household appliance sector has experienced a double kill in performance and valuation since 2021. Looking forward to 2022, the marginal improvement space of the plate is clear, and it is expected to usher in an upward turning point. In addition, Baidian leader grasped the favorable opportunity of Baidian reshuffle period, accelerated channel reform, optimized intelligent manufacturing, improved terminal price, collectively repurchased shares in the capital market, strengthened employee incentive and demonstrated development confidence. It is recommended to pay attention to the Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) of Suite + scene sales driven by the accelerated layout of three winged birds, which conforms to the needs of consumption upgrading and has been preparing for high-end tracks for many years.
Cinda securities mentioned that the home appliance industry has the dual attribute of "consumption + manufacturing". For a long time, the analysis and research of home appliance industry mostly starts from the framework of "channel + demand", while ignoring the manufacturing attributes of home appliances. However, under the new global competitive environment and the background of industrial changes, the position of home appliance manufacturing industry chain has been significantly improved: 1) Comparative Advantage: home appliance manufacturing is one of the few industries with significant comparative advantage in China. 2) Spillover capacity of manufacturing and channels: the strong competitiveness accumulated in the household appliance industry chain for many years will be realized in a higher prosperity track.
Valuation and fundamentals bottomed out, focusing on enterprises with alpha and new tracks. By the end of 2021, the continuous real estate and consumption policies will underpin the valuation of kitchen and bathroom, small power and white power in the household appliance sector. From the perspective of performance, the current situation of weak consumption still needs to be driven by the overall economy and stimulated by the implementation of substantive subsidy policies. Looking forward to the future, we continue to be optimistic about emerging categories with rapid penetration, such as integrated stove, intelligent micro investment, sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , intelligent bathroom and other tracks. []
[Theme 3] food and beverage
Guokai Securities said that the worst time point has passed, focusing on consumption upgrading and price transmission. We believe that the worst time point for food and beverage companies has passed, and the industry fundamentals will be improved in 2022. Superimposed on the current overall valuation level of the sector, some sub sectors with good fundamentals recovery are expected to usher in a new era. It is suggested to look for layout opportunities around the following two main lines: 1. Continue to focus on the main theme of consumption upgrading and look for targets to attack the middle and high-end; 2. Pay attention to price transmission and advance layout will usher in the subject of reversal. According to the current industry boom, we should pay attention to the two sub plates of Baijiu and beer and actively follow the improvement of dairy products, condiments and frozen foods.
Looking forward to 2022, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) points out that the price increases in a cycle, and the performance is expected to accelerate the release. With the normalization of the epidemic and the development of home consumption scenarios, the marginal impact of the epidemic on food and beverage production and sales will be smaller and smaller. Since the third quarter of 2021, the price of food and beverage has been rising. In 2022, the price and inventory of food and beverage are expected to enter a double upward cycle, and actively pay attention to the release of profits. In terms of rhythm, we expect that the price increase in 2022q1 will gradually complete the transmission to the terminal. Under the low base of 2022q2, food and beverage profits are expected to increase significantly. In 2022q3-q4, the price increase profit elasticity will continue to release as the cost increase decreases or even falls.
Two year epidemic stress test, value regression. The epidemic has limited impact, such as the total volume of Baijiu is limited, the price of beer has accelerated, and the speed of yeast and quick-frozen has increased rapidly. The epidemic situation mostly interferes with the mentality and value chain. With the repair of catering, the industry is expected to return to the right track in an all-round way; The logic of industry growth is expected to continue the logic of 2015-2019. The industry has experienced a price war, and the rest is the king. We should pay enough attention to the dragon one dragon two with more adjustments. At present, the price cycle has been started, the inventory increase cycle is expected to come, and the performance is expected to accelerate the release. If the epidemic situation is controlled properly and the macro performance is good, it is expected to obtain excess returns. []
[theme 4] real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that although the current situation of sales cooling, financing control and capital supervision is difficult to change in the short term, and the painful period of the industry will continue, the policy positive signal is obvious. After a certain period of transmission, the liquidity at both ends of supply and demand is expected to be marginally loose. Three main investment lines in the post crisis era deserve attention. Main line 1: industry reform after the painful period; Main line 2: more attention is paid to long-term business; Main line 3: revaluation of high-quality real estate enterprises.
At the current time point, large and medium-sized real estate enterprises with stable operation and healthy finance can not only seize the opportunity of land market to repair the income statement, but also obtain the recognition of financial institutions to ensure financing. They have significant comparative advantages and will fully benefit from the current downward cycle of the industry. In January, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) were recommended.
In addition, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that in 2022, the industry policy will focus on "stability" and adhere to the main tone of "housing, housing and non speculation". Under the guarantee of marginal easing of monetary policy and "guaranteed delivery of housing", the overall industry sales will show a stable downward trend; The shortage of enterprise funds may be alleviated, the industry concentration will continue to increase, and the leading market share of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is expected to continue to rise; The valuation of leading enterprises will continue to be repaired, driving the recovery of industry valuation as a whole. []
