Market review: as of November 30, 2021, interest rate bonds had issued about 18512.5 billion yuan, about 17619.5 billion yuan in the same period last year, an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year, far higher than the annual level in 2018 and 2019; The net financing of interest rate bonds was about 8308 billion yuan, about 10081.7 billion yuan in the same period last year, a decrease of 17.6% compared with the same period last year, still higher than the annual level in 2018 and 2019. In 2021, the secondary market of interest rate bonds experienced a wave of calf market as a whole. As of November 30, the yield of interest rate bonds with various main maturities had declined across the board. Among them, the one-year treasury bond closed at 2.25%, down 23bp compared with the end of last year; The 10-year Treasury bond closed at 2.83%, down 32BP from the end of last year. The term interest margin between 1-year and 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed by 9bp to 58bp compared with the end of last year. The one-year CDB bond closed at 2.39%, down 17bp from the end of last year; The 10-year CDB bond closed at 3.11%, down 43bp from the end of last year.
Economic Growth: it is expected that in 2022, economic growth will seek progress while maintaining stability. The first half of the year is a period of concentrated policy development. By the second half of the year, the results may gradually show, the economic growth will be low before and high after, and the annual GDP growth may be in the range of 5.0% - 5.5%. It is expected that the export growth will slow down in 2022, but it still has a certain toughness, so as to support China's economic growth. The "cliff type" stall risk of the real estate industry is small, but there is great pressure to return to the fast upward channel. The growth rate of the industry shows a trend of bottoming out, stabilizing and slowly recovering, and the drag on economic growth may be less than this year. The overall infrastructure will be "dominated by new infrastructure and supplemented by old infrastructure", showing a moderate momentum as a whole, supporting economic growth. In terms of manufacturing industry, under the measures of the state to support high-quality development, the inclination of the central bank's special credit, and the increased support for "specialized, special and new" enterprises, high-tech manufacturing industry may become an important support for manufacturing growth and even economic growth. The consumption environment shows a marginal improvement trend. The residents' income level and Consumption Willingness may increase in the second half of next year. The consumption growth rate in 2022 may be low before and high after, slightly higher than this year's level.
Inflation level: it is expected that in 2022, the year-on-year scissors difference between PPI and CPI will show a convergence trend, inflation will be transmitted from PPI to CPI, and the year-on-year growth rate of CPI may exceed 3.0% in the second half of the year. As the year-on-year scissors gap between PPI and CPI shrinks, profits are gradually transferred from upstream industries to middle and downstream industries, and the profit structure of the industrial chain is more balanced. For the interest rate bond market, the focus on inflation will change from PPI to CPI. In the first half of next year, CPI may rise moderately year-on-year, and the operation center may be about 2.5%; In the second half of next year, as a new round of pig cycle may start, CPI will accelerate year-on-year.
Policy trend: in terms of monetary policy, it is expected that in 2022, the central bank may formulate more policies around the goal of stable economic growth, focusing on structural policies and cooperating with fiscal policies to fully support the development of the real economy. In terms of fiscal policy, we will accelerate the intensity of fiscal expenditure, and the fiscal force may be advanced. The rhythm of issuing new special bonds may be concentrated in the first half of next year. In terms of overseas policies, with the weakening of the marginal impact of the epidemic, the global inflation level is high, and the risk of liquidity contraction increases.
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the interest rate trend in 2022 may show a "V" shape. At present, the "wide credit" environment has not been formed, and the bottom of social finance has not been fully confirmed. According to past experience, the "top and bottom of social finance" is often ahead of the "top and bottom of interest rate". The time lag depends on the policy, environment and other factors at that time, usually 3-6 months. At present, social finance has preliminary signs of stabilization, but whether it is reversed still needs to be confirmed. Therefore, in the first half of 2022, the small economic cycle may change from "stagflation like" to "recession", and the interest rate may continue the downward trend this year. As marginal monetary easing slows down, the economy rises, inflationary pressure increases, overseas liquidity has the risk of shrinking and accelerating, and interest rates may usher in a volatile upward trend. The annual interest rate trend may be from bottom to top, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds may be 2.65% - 3.15%. In terms of strategy, pay attention to trading orders and short-term interest rate bonds. In recent years, the overall fluctuation range of interest rate has narrowed throughout the year, which has become the norm, and the periodic small trend market has changed frequently, which makes it difficult to grasp the general trend. At the same time, from a long-term perspective, the current interest rate as a whole is at a historically low position, and the profit margin of coupon strategy is reduced. Therefore, we need to pay more attention to band trading, increase the trading frequency, repeatedly make the price difference to obtain greater income, and appropriately enlarge the leverage in the case of abundant liquidity. Due to the gradual breaking of the "just exchange belief", the market risk appetite has been reduced. In addition, with the implementation of the new regulations on asset management, short-term and long-term bonds may have higher cost performance next year.
Risk tip: the economic growth is higher than expected, China's liquidity is lower than expected, overseas inflation pressure leads to the tightening of global liquidity higher than expected, and the risk of credit default leads to the impact on the liquidity of the bond market.
