1. What is the guidance of the year-end market on the stock price in the coming year?
Looking back, it is found that the effectiveness of the market at the end of the past three years has been significantly improved, and the weight of considering the boom of the next year has been increased in the year-end layout of funds. The [October November] market has the strongest guidance on the stock price in the coming year, which may be related to the rhythm of market speculation. From October to November, funds poured into the track with high prosperity (or signs of reversal) in the third quarterly report, and the income may be realized in December. But even so, the market will gradually return in the second year, and the winning rate of the whole year is still high.
2. At the end of the year, funds are often arranged in advance, and it is expected that the next year may be in the direction of high prosperity
The annual distribution of funds mainly follows the two directions of high boom and boom reversal. The direction pursued by more abundant residual liquidity is [accelerated growth] ≈ [sustained high growth] ≈ [decelerated growth - low decline] > [dilemma reversal] > [decelerated growth - high decline] > [low-speed stability].
Among the industries leading the rise at the end of the 21st century, there are not only high boom tracks such as [military electronics, new energy vehicles, special equipment, consumer electronics], but also expected boom reversal [auto parts, 5g hardware], etc. In addition, popular themes such as metauniverse and Internet of things (games, Internet of vehicles and industrial Internet) are also reflected in the market at the end of the year.
3. Under what circumstances, the year-end market guidance fails?
The reason for the "wrong speculation" at the end of the year is mainly that the plates with high growth or reversal expected at the end of the year encounter policies or other force majeure in the next year, resulting in a sharp turn in performance expectations.
Typical policy factors are property management and games, which led the rise at the end of 19. In 20 years, they encountered the "three red lines" of real estate and strict review of the game industry. White power and heavy trucks, which led the rise at the end of the 20th year, also suffered a great impact due to the demolition of real estate and local invisible debt in the 21st year. The typical epidemic factors are oil clothing led by the end of 19 and consumer goods such as textiles and beverages led by the end of 20.
4. Configuration suggestions based on the market at the end of the 21st century
At present, the main feature of this year is that the macro environment is uncertain, but the policy main line (industrial transformation and common prosperity) is clear. Therefore, we should try to choose a track where the industrial cycle is relatively independent of the economic cycle and along the policy main line.
1) The hard technology track is still the main line throughout the year. After adjustment, the restless space in spring may be opened. Throughout the year, the logic of price increase of hard science and technology track is weakened and the logic of energy measurement is strengthened. Military industry, new energy vehicles (batteries, parts, electronics and whole vehicles), large new energy bases (wind, light, storage and operators) and semiconductors (equipment and materials) are mainly recommended.
2) Recommend the dilemma reversal direction that does not depend on the policy: for example, the required food with reversed cost dilemma, pork with reversed price dilemma, and traditional cars and parts with reversed inventory cycle dilemma (it has been reflected at the end of 21).
3) New focus in 22 years: 5g application end may include new infrastructure such as yuancosmos, Internet of vehicles, energy Internet of things and industrial Internet of things (it has been reflected at the end of 21).
Risk tip: virus mutation and repeated global epidemics, inflation forced the Federal Reserve to speed up the pace of taper, and intensified trade and science and technology friction
