Key investment points
Review of gold stocks in the fourth quarter of 2021: in the fourth quarter of 2021, the portfolio income of the top ten gold stocks of Caixin securities was 16.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.64pct, Outperformed the Shanghai 50 index by 13.72 PCT, Outperformed the gem index by 13.73 PCT. In the fourth quarter of 2021, gold stocks rose and fell successively: Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) (+ 71.68%), Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) (+ 31.88%), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (+ 19.65%), Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) (+ 18.03%), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (+ 8.90%), Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) (+ 5.82%), Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (+ 4.47%), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (+ 1.49%), Zhongfu Information Inc(300659) (+ 0.58%) and Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) (- 0.16%). In the fourth quarter, except for Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) , the top ten gold stocks of Caixin securities achieved positive returns. Since the beginning of 2021 (from January 8, 2021 to December 31, 2021), the cumulative return of the top ten gold stock portfolios of Caixin securities has been 20.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 30.90pct, Outperformed the Shanghai 50 index by 34.34pct, Outperform the gem index by 15.22 PCT.
China’s liquidity is reasonable and abundant, and the market is expected to follow a V-shaped trend. The current round of China’s economic recovery has come to an end, and the pressure on China’s economic growth will further increase in 2022. The central economic work conference required that “next year’s economic work should be stable, seek progress while maintaining stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced”, “the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity”. It is expected that next year, China’s monetary policy will be “self-centered, reasonable and abundant”, and targeted to support small and micro enterprises, science and technology enterprises and green enterprises. In the third quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of all A-Shares was – 0.18% year-on-year. Generally, it takes 5-7 quarters for performance growth to get out of negative growth. It is expected that there will still be some pressure on the performance of A-share listed companies next year. It is suggested to avoid the performance disclosure period for investment next year. Liquidity and sentiment (favorable policies) may be the sources of excess returns. In the past, A-share policy bottom, market bottom and economic bottom usually appeared in turn. Next year, with the transmission of broad currency to broad credit, the growth rate of social finance will hit the bottom and rebound. It is expected that the stock market will lag behind the growth rate of social finance for 1-2 months, hit the bottom and rebound, and the market will show a V-shaped trend. In the context of residents’ savings moving, the slow bull market of A-Shares will still be deduced next year.
Configuration recommendations. It is expected that the A-share market will still achieve positive returns in 2022, and there are still structural investment opportunities in the market. We are optimistic about the following four sectors in turn (in order):
(1) A plate with prosperous production and marketing. In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer;
(2) New energy and other track stocks. In 2022, new energy track stocks still have the opportunity to obtain excess returns, but it is expected that the differentiation will intensify, the stocks with proven performance will still grow high, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected;
(3) Downstream consumer segment. The scissors gap between China’s PPI and CPI is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliance industries;
(4) Epidemic damaged plate. In 2022, with the global epidemic situation under control, there is a momentum for valuation and repair in the epidemic damaged plate, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema, etc.
Combined with the recommendation of industry researchers, we launched the top ten gold stocks in the first quarter of 2022: Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Chongqing Chuanyi Automation Co.Ltd(603100) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Chang Lan Electric Technology Co.Ltd(002879) .
Risk tips: the epidemic is out of control, economic stall, trade friction, exchange rate fluctuations, hyperinflation.
