Industry configuration this week:
Super matching: automobile, media, textile and clothing, food and beverage, securities companies, military industry, communication and electronics
Standard configuration: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, transportation, electrical equipment, building materials, steel, computer, medicine, machinery, banking, real estate, light industry and chemical industry
Low allocation: leisure services, nonferrous metals, mining
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio in 2021 was 66.16%, which was 69.55% relative to the excess return of CSI 300.
Valuation: CSI 300iape is close to the 60th percentile, and CSI 300pb is above the 50th percentile. Shanghai IAPE is close to the 50th percentile, Shanghai Pb is close to the 30th percentile, Shanghai 50iape is close to the 60th percentile, and Shanghai 50pb is below the 50th percentile line. IAPE on GEM is close to the 80th percentile and Pb on GEM is close to the 90th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry rose more or fell less, with social services, national defense and military industry, comprehensive, light industry manufacturing and household appliances among the top gainers.
Combined with Pb and expected roe, photovoltaic, vaccine, phosphorus chemical industry, innovative drugs, new energy, Internet of things, specialized and special new sectors have better cost performance. Combined with PEG and expectation, the prosperity of photovoltaic, biological vaccine, new energy, aerospace equipment, lithium battery, cro and other sectors is better.
Money & Interest Rate: the top-level design of macro prudential policies formulated by the central bank.
upper reaches
IEA inventories continued to decline and international oil prices continued to rebound
Indonesia restricts coal exports and thermal coal prices are expected to rebound
Lithium prices continued to rise and gold prices rose slightly
The delivery of Pakistan railway was weak at the end of the year, and the fundamental pressure of iron ore was large
middle reaches
Short term fluctuation of steel price
Photovoltaic ushers in an inflection point
Cement prices fell and glass prices stabilized
Pure benzene led the increase
The freight rate of centralized transportation is high and upward, and the express delivery pattern continues to improve
downstream
Real estate sales recovered and second-hand housing transactions increased month on month
The home appliance industry has poor sales, and the offline performance is better than the online performance
The price of high-end famous wine rose again, promoting the release of plate performance
TMT
Electronics: in 2021, the world shipped 1.32 billion smartphones, and Xiaomi ranked third
Computer: the policy is good, and the computer sector subdivides the track
Media: the box office on New Year’s day reached the second in history on the same day, and the live broadcast and goods were comprehensively rectified
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic failure to meet expectations, the risk of monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, the risk of regulatory policy exceeding expectations, the risk of industry prosperity failing to meet expectations, and the risk of stagflation
