Main points
Last week, the main market indexes basically showed an upward trend, with the industry rising more and falling less. On the disk, the Shanghai index rose 0.60%, the component index rose 1.00%, the gem index rose 0.78%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3000 rose 0.39%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.48%, the China Securities 500 rose 1.11%, the China Securities 1000 rose 3.01%, and the science and innovation board rose 2.90%. Shenwan industry rose more and fell less. Social services (4.88%), national defense and military industry (4.53%) and comprehensive (4.44%) led the increase; Food and beverage (- 4.65%), coal (- 4.05%) and public utilities (- 1.27%) led the decline.
Last week, the volume of the two cities continued to fall, and the funds going north showed a net inflow. Last week, the average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1010.558 billion, down 6.95% from 1086.042 billion in the previous period; The average daily trading volume of the two cities was 76.095 billion shares, down 15.76% month on month. In terms of RMB, the total inflow of land stock to the north is 14.669 billion yuan, including 6.796 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock connect and 7.873 billion yuan from Shenzhen Stock connect; The balance of the two financial institutions fell month on month, closing at 1832.152 billion yuan on Friday, up 172 million yuan month on month compared with the previous period; Among them, the balance of financing was 1712.006 billion yuan and the balance of securities lending was 120.147 billion yuan.
Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly and demand rebounded. On the whole, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continued to work, the prices of some raw materials fell, and the manufacturing boom level continued for two consecutive months. Specifically, although the production end has decreased compared with the previous month, it continues to maintain the expansion trend; The demand side rebounded for two consecutive months, but it is still in the contraction range; The price index continued to fall, the prices of some raw materials fell, the pressure on enterprise procurement costs eased, and the preparation speed of enterprises increased. In the future, the recent epidemic situation in China has shown a scattered outbreak trend, which has had an obvious negative impact on the regional economy. It is expected to have an impact on the service industry and the demand side. However, the power of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price has eased the pressure on the cost side of enterprises and the demand for replenishing inventory has rebounded. We believe that on the whole, China’s manufacturing PMI may continue to remain stable, but with the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic, production and demand may fall back.
Spring is restless and ready to go. Pay attention to liquidity. In the last week of 2021, the overall market maintained the trend of Shanghai Stock Exchange, but the increase was small, the market volume was basically stable, and the adjustment since mid December was basically ended. It can be seen from the PMI data that the manufacturing boom has rebounded, but considering the recent rebound of the local epidemic in China, the sustainability of the manufacturing PMI boom remains to be seen. The signal of steady growth is clear. The first quarter is an important policy window period. We need to focus on the areas supported by steady growth policies, pay attention to the time node of policy introduction, and look for structural opportunities. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market risk appetite is usually relatively low, and there are concerns about uncertainty. At the same time, this stage is also a vacuum period of enterprise performance, and the change of liquidity has a relatively great impact on the market. We believe that this stage should focus on the marginal change of liquidity. The restless market in spring may start with the steady growth policy and the marginal change of liquidity. The industry can pay attention to military industry, food and beverage, beauty care.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the liquidity tightening exceeded expectations, and the economic recovery was less than expected
