[main conclusions:]
Macro economy: PMI data in December showed that the foundation of economic stabilization is not firm, and attention is paid to the force range and landing effect of steady growth policy in the first quarter. It is preliminarily estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December is 1.6%, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is about 11%. This week, the central bank invested a net 600 billion yuan, and the money market capital interest rate rose.
Equity market: in mid December, the PMI of manufacturing industry and service industry continued to rise, indicating that the worst time of economic chain comparison has passed. Itemized data show that the economy continues to be in the state of production recovery and inventory replenishment under the background of weakening supply restrictions and falling high upstream prices. Considering the downward pressure on real estate and the strict implementation of epidemic prevention policies, we believe that there are still hidden worries about the short-term economic recovery. Pay attention to the strength range and landing effect of the steady growth policy in the first quarter. In December, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises continued to decline, and the profit distribution between upstream and downstream was further balanced.
Fixed income market: no matter from the perspective of coordinating with steady growth or preventing real estate debt risk, it is expected that monetary policy will at least maintain a relatively loose environment, and the risk of obvious adjustment of yield is relatively controllable. However, the further rise of subsequent bonds may need to see the fulfillment of the expectation of interest rate reduction, but we tend to think that it is difficult to reduce interest rate through game. With the development of other policies, The stabilization of fundamentals in the future is expected to be unfavorable to bonds. Further considering that the current bond valuation is too expensive and the cost performance of long bonds is low, it is suggested that the duration strategy is neutral and cautious
