The core industry views are as follows
The industrial added value of the middle and downstream industries increased year-on-year, and the prosperity margin of most upstream raw materials and some downstream industries fell, which is in line with our view in the annual investment strategy. It is expected that in the downward stage of the economic cycle, the allocation focus of A-Shares will gradually tilt towards the “middle and downstream”, with prosperity differentiation, high added value and high demand for high-tech industries maintaining high growth, Marginal consumer recovery.
New energy vehicles are still the biggest bright spot of vehicle growth and maintain a high boom. In addition, with the establishment of electrification trend, intelligent penetration is expected to accelerate. In November, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 378500, a year-on-year increase of 122.3% and a month on month increase of 19.39%.
Photovoltaic industry: the decline in the price of upstream silicon material drives the industrial chain into the price downward channel. The continuous high growth at the demand end and the large amount of overseas demand support the development of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain.
Semiconductor and panel boom continued: affected by strong downstream demand and domestic substitution, China’s mainstream semiconductor enterprises have full orders in hand. In November, the shipment volume of North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers was + 50.6% year-on-year. On December 27, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reached a new high of 4039.512.
Baijiu price is stable, the price of medium and high end wine has increased slightly, and the price increase is expected in the superimposed sales season. The price of fresh milk in the main producing areas increased, and the price of fresh milk in the main producing areas was reported at 4.3 yuan / kg. In the short term, it benefits from the upcoming peak consumption season. In the medium and long term, after the cost side pressure is gradually relieved, it is expected to enjoy the double dividend of raw material price decline + profit elasticity repair.
The cost pressure of home appliances has dropped, the demand side real estate has marginal improvement expectations, and the domestic sales and exports of air conditioners have rebounded year-on-year, but other categories are still subject to year-on-year negative growth. In addition, the recovery of production capacity in Southeast Asia may squeeze the export of home appliances, so the export pressure is noteworthy.
Industry Overview
In November, the industrial added value of middle and downstream industries such as medicine, biology, electronics, mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, food and beverage increased year-on-year, and the prosperity margin of most upstream raw materials and some downstream industries fell, such as mining, steel and automobile.
Specifically, due to the repeated emphasis on the “supply of primary products” at important meetings and the effect of “double limit” correction, the upstream fell as a whole. After the supply of upstream raw materials was guaranteed and the supply-demand gap was alleviated, the price fell steadily: the boom of iron and steel and chemical industry fell significantly; Disturbed by La Nina phenomenon, the mining boom margin warmed up.
In terms of midstream manufacturing, the economy is under triple pressure, and the midstream boom is divided. Constrained by the fact that infrastructure and real estate investment have not improved, the boom of the traditional manufacturing industry represented by machinery and equipment has dropped significantly. In contrast, high-tech industries with high added value and strong demand still maintain high growth, and the boom of electronic communication and electrical equipment shows strong toughness.
Downstream, the recent mandatory consumption is better than the optional consumption. Affected by the decline in the cost of raw materials and the opening of the price rise tide, the prosperity margin of the food and beverage sector rebounded with year-on-year growth, the pharmaceutical and biological boom continued to increase year-on-year, and the overall prosperity margin of mandatory consumption improved. Most optional consumption industries still maintained year-on-year growth, but the boom margin fell slightly. The boom of the automotive industry increased sharply throughout the year, but the recent marginal decline and sales volume were low. However, with the gradual easing of the core shortage, the subsequent recovery trend was determined. In particular, the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to exceed expectations, and there was no worry about the demand.
Risk tip: data lag, limited data representativeness, macroeconomic downturn exceeding expectations
