In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, although the number of new cases per day in the world reaches a new high and the mortality does not rise but decreases, the harm of covid-19 epidemic situation will continue to decrease, which provides practical support for the “influenza treatment” of covid-19 epidemic situation. In terms of economy, the tolerance of supply and demand has been significantly strengthened, the PMI index of manufacturing industry has remained stable, and the impact on service industry has been significantly weakened. In terms of policy, although the increasing inflationary pressure on the two major economies in Europe and the United States has led the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to increase the marginal recovery of monetary policy, the already narrow interest rate difference between the yields of 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds has obviously suppressed the interest rate increase range of the Federal Reserve, which will make it more cautious in formally raising interest rates, Moreover, with the official opening of the US interest rate hike, the fear of monetary tightening may be alleviated, and the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds is expected to fall periodically.
In terms of China’s economy, in the third quarter, with the promotion of measures to stabilize prices and ensure supply and the gradual easing of the problem of “lack of core”, the inhibitory effect of the supply side on the economy continued to ease, but the problem of sluggish demand was still significant; In terms of inflation, the peak fall of commodity prices and the stabilization and rebound of pork prices have significantly narrowed the scissors difference between the year-on-year growth of CPI and PPI, alleviated the structural alienation of inflation, and then balanced the distribution of benefits of industrial enterprises between upstream, middle and downstream.
In terms of regulation and control policies, the weak economic chain expansion combined with the impact of a high base has put great growth pressure on the economy in the first half of 2022. The strong demand for stable growth has continued to promote the care policy. The retention of fiscal surplus in 2021, the post issuance of special bonds and the pre issuance of special bonds in 2022 have provided necessary financial support for the government, The promotion of major projects in the 14th five year plan makes it possible to form the physical quantity, and the recovery of the growth rate of new and old infrastructure investment has become an important focus for stabilizing demand; On the other hand, the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates also shows the caring attitude of monetary regulation towards steady growth.
Risk tip: the development of international epidemic situation exceeded expectations
