Key investment points
The social zero growth rate increased rapidly month on month. In 2022m1-2, the accumulated total social zero was 7.44 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7% (2021m12, a year-on-year increase of + 1.7%); After deducting price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2022m1-2 actually increased by 4.9% year-on-year. The retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles reached 6.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.0%. By channel, the online retail sales of physical goods in 2022m1-2 was 1.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.6% (2021m12 was + 1.9%). The online retail sales of physical goods in 2022m1-2 accounted for 24.2% of the total social zero, a decrease of 7.7pp compared with 2021m12, which was flat year-on-year. By category, the top three categories of 2022m1-2 growth are: Petroleum and products (year-on-year + 25.6%, 2021m12 + 16.6%), gold, silver and jewelry (year-on-year + 19.5%, 2021m12 – 0.2%), tobacco and alcohol (year-on-year + 13.6%, 2021m12 + 7.0%).
Cultural office, gold, silver and jewelry maintained a strong performance, and the growth rate of daily necessities slowed down. Furniture focuses on the continuous differentiation between leading enterprises and industries. 2022m1-2 furniture society zero year-on-year – 6.0% (2021m12 – 3.1%). The leading enterprises in 20222022 furniture industry continued to expand, but the differentiation of 2022-2m2 furniture industry continued to improve. In terms of real estate, under the influence of tighter supervision and greater capital pressure on some real estate enterprises, the completed and sales area of 2022m1-2 declined. The completed area of 2022m1-2 houses was – 9.8% year-on-year, and the sales area of commercial houses was – 9.6% year-on-year. However, after the Spring Festival in 2022, many mortgage interest rates have been adjusted underground. At the same time, the government work report emphasizes the protection of reasonable housing demand, and the subsequent real estate sales performance is expected to be marginal repaired. The growth rate of cultural office supplies accelerated: 2022m1-2 was + 11.1% (2021m12 was + 7.4%). Daily necessities maintained a rapid growth rate and showed a good repair trend: daily necessities 2022m1-2 year-on-year + 10.7% (2021m12 year-on-year + 18.8%). Gold, silver and jewelry scenery has returned to a high level:
2022m1-2 + 19.5% (2021m12 – 0.2%).
The valuation of the furniture section was suppressed by the real estate sentiment and reiterated the valuation repair opportunity. In the short term, the weakness of real estate suppresses the valuation of furniture section, but we reiterate: 1) the demand for renovation of stock houses is growing, and its contribution to the demand of furniture industry is increasing. In addition, the intensity of old reform from 2019 continues to increase. According to the estimation of the construction period of 2-3 years, the incremental demand released by old reform from 2022 will increase rapidly. 2) In the era of traffic fragmentation, head enterprises have outstanding advantages in channel management fineness and brand strength, so they can better grasp the changes of traffic and promote the improvement of industry concentration. First of all, [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] management improvement and retail under the whole strategy are expected to accelerate; [ consolidate the leading position ; [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] with accelerated store opening and rapid development of its own brand; The pioneer of retail reform, the increasingly clear route of big home [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and the functional sofa leader [Minhua holdings] with low valuation, it is suggested to pay attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ].
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the real estate regulation exceeds expectations, and the prosperity of the industry decreases.
