Main points
In December, the PMI index of the euro area decreased slightly and remained at a relatively high level as a whole
In December, the euro zone economic prosperity index fell again, reaching a new low throughout the year, but still far higher than the boom and bust line, indicating that the euro zone economy continued to recover, and the epidemic repeatedly dragged down the recovery and stabilization of the euro zone in the second half of the year.
Omicron’s intrusion has dragged down the growth efficiency of service industry in the eurozone
In December, the economic decline in the euro area was mainly due to the lack of prosperity of key service industries in the euro area. The epidemic has repeatedly exacerbated the complexity of the impact of global supply chain problems in the eurozone. The shortage of raw materials, the inefficiency of the transportation sector, and the rising prices of oil, natural gas and electricity continue to push up inflation. The implementation of epidemic prevention measures in euro zone countries has resulted in labor shortage, and the employment cost of enterprises has been high for two consecutive months. The decline in economic prosperity in the euro area in December was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic on the operation efficiency of the service industry.
The economic prosperity of the euro area is divided, and there may be differences in the direction of monetary policy
The performance of the economic prosperity of the euro zone is different among Member States. As the locomotive of the European economy, the economic growth prosperity of “Germany” has decreased significantly, especially the outlook of the key industry service industry has decreased more, and the performance of high inflation is more significant than that of other countries. This month, the European Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary easing policy during the epidemic and will not start raising interest rates in the short term. Germany’s balance between economic recovery and inflation control may be different from the implementation of monetary policy in the eurozone. In December, the economic prosperity of the euro area declined, which did not hinder the trade with China in the short term, and the market continued to be optimistic about the growth prospect of the euro area
During the epidemic, the EU jumped to China’s second largest trading partner. The key areas of China EU trade mainly focus on development cooperation in green and clean energy. The short-term EU economic growth is disturbed, which does not affect the long-term in-depth cooperation between China and the EU in related fields and service trade.
Risk statement
Inflation rises too fast; The epidemic situation is repeated.
