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Kerry released the top 100 sales list of Chinese real estate enterprises from January to December 2021.
The monthly equity sales amount of the top 100 in December was – 38.5% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.1pct compared with the previous value. According to Kerui data, the full caliber sales amount of the top 100 in December was – 36.0% year-on-year, with a decrease of 3.3pct compared with the previous value; From January to December, the year-on-year growth rate of full caliber cumulative sales amount decreased by 5.0 percentage points to – 3.2% compared with the previous value. From the perspective of equity, the equity sales amount of the top 100 in December was – 38.5% year-on-year, with a decrease of 4.1pct compared with the previous value; From January to December, the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative equity sales decreased by 4.9 percentage points to – 6.1%. In December, the single month equity caliber and full caliber slowdown narrowed, but the year-on-year decline was still too large. In December this year, the amount of single month equity accounted for 8.7% of the total annual sales, far less than 13.2% in 2020 (11.6% in 2019 and 11.7% in 2018). The reason is that I) on the demand side: under the influence of the overall environment in the second half of the year, the buyers’ wait-and-see mood increased, resulting in the slowdown of demand transformation. II) supply side: due to the impact of centralized land supply in core cities, the rhythm of real estate enterprises’ goods promotion was disrupted, resulting in the weakening of supply in the second half of the year.
The advantages of large-scale real estate enterprises in the downward cycle of the industry have gradually become prominent
From January to December, the cumulative threshold of full caliber top3 / 10 / 20 / 50 / 100 changed by – 1035, 121, 3, – 10 and – 1.1 billion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year. Except that the access threshold of TOP10 and 20 increased, the other thresholds decreased, and the threshold of top3 changed the most. Among them, the December of top1-3 / 4-10 / 11-20 / 21-50 / 51-100 was – 8.1%, – 33.0%, – 38.4%, – 33.2%, – 48.7% respectively, with changes of + 14.7, + 13.5, – 8.7, + 7.4 and – 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with the previous value. From the perspective of equity, the monthly year-on-year figures of top1-3 / 4-10 / 11-20 / 21-50 / 51-100 were – 43.0%, – 21.5%, – 34.0%, – 39.7%, – 52.8% respectively, and the changes compared with the previous values were + 3.3, + 20.0, – 3.3, + 2.6 and – 1.1 percentage points respectively. It can be seen that although the decline in sales of the top 100 in a single month in December narrowed, the cumulative sales amount of equity caliber still increased negatively year-on-year due to the impact of the overall environment of the industry throughout the year.
Investment advice
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “real estate loan concentration management” and “two concentration of land supply” will restrict both ends of supply and demand. Since the second half of 2021, the market has continued to turn cold. The regulatory authorities have publicly stated for many times that they want to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies. Looking forward to 2022, the restriction of supply and demand at both ends of the industry will aggravate the disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. It is predicted that there is a possibility that the differentiation at the land acquisition end may be transmitted to the sales end. If there is no substantive relaxation at the financing end, the real estate enterprises will be forced to “exchange price for quantity” to strengthen endogenous payment collection. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. Suggestions: suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk statement
The real estate regulation policy is becoming stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital is greatly tightened.
