Event: Indonesia announced that it would ban all coal exports from January 1 to January 31, and make further decisions after reassessing the relevant forms as early as January 5.
There is a shortage of coal in Indonesia, and the government demands to stop coal export. According to a letter to all coal mines signed by the director of the Indonesian Coal Bureau, all coal exports are prohibited from January 1 to 31. The main reason for the coal shortage in Indonesia and China is that over the past few months, Indonesian coal mines have failed to supply Chinese power plants in full in accordance with the “Chinese market supply obligation”, resulting in a coal shortage at the end of the year. According to Sindh maritime, Indonesia’s coal output is expected to be 609 million tons and its export volume is 435 million tons in 2021, making it the largest exporter in the world.
Indonesian coal imports account for 61%, which has a great impact on China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal supply pattern. From January to November 2021, China imported 293 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. Among them, Indonesia imported 178 million tons of coal, accounting for 60.8%, a significant increase of 17.4 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the obstruction of Australian coal import. In terms of coal types, China mainly imports thermal coal from Indonesia. From January to November, China imported 176 million tons of thermal coal from Indonesia, accounting for 74.43% of thermal coal imports; The imported coking coal is 20.5693 million tons, accounting for 4.36% of the imported coking coal.
The average monthly import volume of Indonesian coal accounts for 5.39% of China’s total coal supply, and the short-term power coal price is expected to bottom. In terms of demand, as of December 29, 2001, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 33.698 million tons, a decrease of 3.33% on a weekly basis; The daily consumption was 2.362 million tons, an increase of 11.8% over the previous week. At present, the inventory of the power plant is running at a high level, and the daily consumption is lower than expected, so the procurement demand is poor. In terms of supply, the production task of coal mines will be completed at the end of the year, and more coal mines will stop production and reduce production, but normal production may return after new year’s day. In terms of import, the average monthly coal import volume of Indonesia in 2021 was 16.2088 million tons, accounting for 5.39% of the total monthly coal supply. Under the condition that the coal demand is less than expected, the reduction of imported coal is expected to support the coal price in the short term.
Risk warning: risk of cancellation of coal ban; The risk that the coal price fluctuation is less than expected, the risk that the coal output is less than expected, etc
