Looking back to 2020: the epidemic shakes the global economic order and the automobile travel industry is facing trial
In 2020, impacted by the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, the global economy experienced the worst recession since World War II; Developed economies have implemented extremely loose monetary policy and large-scale fiscal stimulus plan, and the economy has recovered since the second half of the year. At the same time, the impact of the epidemic will lead to an increase in financial sustainability risks and hidden financial risks, which will also have a far-reaching impact on the global economic structure, international trade and investment.
global economy
The GDP of developed economies suffered a setback. The GDP of major developed economies fell sharply in the second quarter of 2020, rebounded in the third quarter, and the recovery was differentiated in the fourth quarter.
Deterioration of the labour market
Unemployment rates in various countries have risen to varying degrees. The International Labor Organization estimates that after the epidemic, the global working hours decreased by 12.1%, equivalent to the loss of 345 million full-time jobs.
International Trade and investment shrink
Affected by the covid-19 epidemic, the global trade volume of goods fell by 5.3% in 2020; In 2020, global foreign direct investment decreased by 42% year-on-year.
Chinese economy
The economy recovered steadily. In 2020, China’s GDP was 101.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. It is the only major economy in the world to achieve positive economic growth.
Industrial production picked up quarter by quarter
In 2020, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 2.8% year-on-year. The rapid growth of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has played an important supporting role in economic growth.
Improved consumption and strong exports
In 2020, the per capita disposable income of residents will increase by 2.1% in real terms, and the social zero will decrease first and then increase. The total import and export volume of the whole year increased by 1.9%, and the trade structure was optimized.
Covid-19 epidemic has a pulse impact, and the global automobile industry chain is under pressure
In 2020, the global auto sales totaled 78.03 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. In addition to sales, the spread and mutation of the virus also hinder the processing and manufacturing processes of automobile chips and electronic components. According to the analysis of Aisin Huamai, the chip supply interruption caused by covid-19 epidemic will continue the dilemma faced by the automotive industry until 2022. Subject to the epidemic situation, the automobile industry has experienced “Nirvana”, and CVC will be the backbone of the four modernizations of automobiles
Due to the impulsive impact of covid-19 epidemic, the world automobile industry chain is under pressure. According to the analysis of Aisin Huamai, the chip supply interruption caused by covid-19 epidemic will continue the dilemma faced by the automobile industry until 2022.
Global auto sales declined, but new energy vehicles entered an upward period. In 2020, global auto sales totaled 78.03 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. However, in the second half of 2020, stimulated by many factors such as incentive policies, product price reduction and carbon neutralization planning, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles increased sharply; European overweight subsidies for new energy vehicles also led to hot sales, and the market value of global new energy vehicle enterprises soared. China’s “new forces” auto enterprises such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal walked out of their business difficulties in 2019, and their production capacity and sales volume increased.
In the long run, the automobile industry still has the general trend of networking, electrification, intelligence and sharing, which is in line with the national general direction of “technological progress + industrial upgrading”
