Recently, A-Shares have been callback continuously. According to the data, as of March 15, the average p / E ratio of A-Shares was 16.4 times, close to the level at the end of 2019.
The reporter of Securities Daily interviewed five chief economists or chief strategists on the current valuation level and long-term trend of a shares. Experts said that at present, the valuation level of A-Shares is below the historical average, and the follow-up should gradually focus on fundamentals. From the perspective of China's economic fundamentals, market liquidity and enterprise performance, multiple positive factors will help A-Shares "break through" in the future.
According to statistics, as of March 15, 1242 A-share companies disclosed their annual report performance (including annual report and performance express) in 2021, realizing a total net profit of 1.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.04%. In addition, 28 companies released performance forecasts for the first quarter of 2022, of which 24 were pre happy, accounting for 85.71%.
a-share valuation is below the historical average
"At present, A-Shares have been adjusted to a relatively reasonable range and are firmly optimistic about the long-term trend of the stock market in the future." Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Securities chief economist Yang growth said in an interview with reporters.
Referring to the current valuation level of a shares, Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) chief economist Zhao Wei told reporters that after the recent market adjustment, A-Shares have a high cost performance in the medium and long term. It can focus on high-quality development and manufacturing upgrading, focusing on low-carbon, intelligent and digital industries.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief strategist Chen Guo holds similar views. He told reporters that with the continuous adjustment of the market, the current A-share valuation is close to the pre epidemic level and below the historical average. It is an area that can be considered for medium and long-term allocation.
Chen Guo further said that the recent decline of A-Shares was affected by internal and external factors, as well as some emotional factors. Investors should not continue to amplify external factors in the follow-up. They should gradually focus on the fundamentals of A-Shares and look at A-Shares with a neutral attitude. They can start to choose some high-quality companies and consider medium-term allocation.
"In my personal opinion, the current A-share valuation has reached a relatively low position." Wang Delun, chief economist of Xingzheng asset management, said in an interview with reporters that from the perspective of the three indexes, at present, the P / E ratios of Shanghai stock index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index are at the historical quantile levels of 32%, 42% and 40% respectively in the past decade.
A-Shares still need to wait for forward catalyst
Although the factors affecting the trend of A-Shares have been fully reflected, experts believe that we still need to wait for some positive catalysts.
"At present, A-Shares continue to decline, mainly due to the damage of risk appetite and liquidity at the same time, which puts great pressure on the valuation of a shares." Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) chief economist Shao Yu said in an interview with the Securities Daily that at present, the valuation and cost performance of all sectors of the market have returned to varying degrees, and we need to wait for some positive catalysts to improve market risk appetite. "Only in this way can the global epidemic situation be significantly curbed and the liquidity of the whole market be relieved." Shao Yu further said.
Yang growth also believes that the trend of A-Shares in the early stage is mainly affected by external factors. After these external influences dissipate, the trend of A-Shares will be stable and finally return to China's fundamentals.
Turning to which sectors have advantages in valuation at present, Wang Delun believes that the first is the large market blue chip, mainly the undervalued sectors such as finance and cycle. In addition to valuation factors, the performance certainty of these sectors is also relatively high, which is less affected in the environment of overseas interest rate hikes, and the chip structure is not particularly concentrated. Second, wind power, photovoltaic, digital economy, power grid transformation, national defense and military industry, semiconductor and other sectors may have certain configuration value. From the perspective of fundamentals, these sectors are supported and encouraged by national policies, and they are also one of the driving points of steady growth, and positive changes have taken place at the enterprise level; From the perspective of valuation, after the early correction of stock price, some high-quality stocks have entered the range of long-term strategic allocation.
medium and long term multiple favorable factors gathering
Turning to the positive factors supporting A-Shares at present and in the future, Zhao Wei believes that China's broad currency and credit help the economy stabilize and recover. Subsequently, after corporate profits ushered in an inflection point and overseas uncertainties subsided, A-Shares may rebound.
Chen Guo believes that there are three main positive factors. First, China's economic trend in the second half of the year, especially the general rate of domestic demand, is improving. Second, the policy of broad money and credit has been gradually strengthened; Third, the current fundamentals of some companies are better than expected, and the number of companies better than expected in the second half of the year is expected to increase.
In Wang Delun's view, there are many positive factors in the medium and long term of a shares. First, the boots of the US interest rate hike are on the ground. With the convening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this month, it is expected that the concerns will be reduced, which will play a positive role in boosting short-term market preference; Second, China's steady growth has been vigorously promoted. China's economic data in the first two months are generally good. It is expected that the economy will develop steadily and vigorously in the first quarter; Third, from the operating data of some enterprises in the first two months, the performance of some high boom enterprises increased rapidly, and the performance growth exceeding expectations may also help A-Shares break through.
Yang growth said that the long-term bullish on A-Shares is mainly based on three aspects. First, China's economic fundamentals are very stable. At present, among the global economies, only China has maintained a high growth rate while maintaining low inflation rate, low deficit rate and high employment. Therefore, China's economic growth belongs to high-quality growth. Second, the market does not have to worry too much about China's liquidity. Since the outbreak, China has not engaged in "flood irrigation", and the fiscal deficit rate has decreased year by year. In addition, the money supply is relatively stable, emphasizing the synchronization with GDP, so there is no problem of recovering liquidity in the later stage. Third, there is no need to worry too much about the performance of Chinese enterprises. Last year, the performance of listed companies increased well, and the profits of Chinese industrial enterprises hit a record high. In general, the performance of enterprises has increased steadily in the past two years. And from the first two months of this year, it started well, because the base in the first half of last year was very high.
"On the whole, whether from the perspective of China's economic fundamentals, market liquidity, enterprise performance or China's macro policy layout, the basis for the long-term stability and improvement of China's stock market has not changed, and it is still structural adjustment." Yang growth further said
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