Report summary
The 2021 year-end list of new forces announced that the annual sales volume of weixiaoli exceeded 90000: Weilai delivered 10489 vehicles in December, realizing positive growth for seven consecutive quarters; The total delivery volume in the whole year reached 91429, doubling for two consecutive years. It is expected that the company will deliver et5 / et7 / ES7 and other three models in 22 years, and the sales volume will be further improved. The ideal car delivered 14087 vehicles in December, with a total delivery of 90491 vehicles in the whole year. With the construction of new factories and the launch of new models, the sales volume is expected to grow rapidly in 2022. 16000 Xiaopeng cars were delivered in December; The total delivery volume of the whole year reached 98155 sets. In terms of single vehicle delivery, Xiaopeng P7 is the main sales force, and the sales volume of the new Xiaopeng P5 is remarkable, with 5030 vehicles in a single month. Weima delivered 5062 vehicles in December; The total delivery volume in the whole year reached 44157, close to the sum of the past three years. Nezha delivered 10127 vehicles in December; The total delivery volume of the whole year reached 69674 vehicles. According to models, in December, Nezha V delivered 5280 vehicles, with a cumulative delivery of more than 50000, and Nezha Upro delivered 4847 vehicles. 7807 Zero run vehicles were delivered in December; 43121 vehicles were delivered in the whole year. In December, the single month delivery volume hit a record high again, and the market performance accelerated significantly.
Suggestion: the downstream electric vehicle sales volume is large, and the end view of the material remains the same. The price of lithium carbonate is still rising. Considering that many manufacturers stopped production for maintenance at the end of the year, the output was reduced, the mood of goods preparation at the end of the year was full, and the downstream demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate broke out, the price may still remain high in the short term, but considering that the expansion of the new energy vehicle industry chain is still in the early stage, In the future, the cost reduction brought by the release of new production capacity and process improvement in the whole industry has not been fully reflected, and under the background of high landscape and smooth cost transmission in the downstream, we believe that the profitability of all links of the industrial chain will remain at a high level. Recently, the upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain have frequently signed cooperation agreements / purchase agreements. Under the background of continuous large-scale shipment of new energy vehicles and power batteries from downstream customers and rapid release of energy storage demand, the demand for guarantee and supply from downstream customers has increased, which is also a symbol of the high prosperity of the midstream battery material link in the future. We will continue to pay attention to the midstream link with good competition pattern, Optimistic about leading companies with cost advantages and performance advantages: 1) lithium battery manufacturers: the cost is expected to be transmitted to downstream host plants, and the inflection point of profit expectation is emerging; 2) Lithium copper foil race track: the supply gap is the most deterministic. From the fourth quarter of 2021 to 2022, the processing fee of lithium copper foil will continue to rise, the supply gap will expand, and the leading enterprises will increase both volume and price; 3) Diaphragm track with good competition pattern and profitability: the gross profit margin of the head diaphragm enterprise has remained above 40% in recent three years. The head enterprise has full production and sales. Under the rigid production expansion cycle, the leader gives priority to the growth of the demand market. With the advancement of the overseas electrification process, the proportion of overseas customers of the enterprise is increased, which is expected to further improve the profitability; 4) Cathode & precursor: the growth rate of production and sales is considerable, the demand space for lithium iron phosphate is open in the future, the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode is clear, and leading enterprises actively expand production to seize the market share of high-end precursors; 5) Electrolyte race track: with the expansion of electrolyte production, the market is worried about its periodicity. The head company benefits from long-term association orders, the impact of price disturbance will be stabilized next year, and the cost and profit advantages will be further highlighted by adding new lithium salt business; 6) Lithium battery equipment: during the high-speed growth period of the 14th five year plan, the power battery started the second production expansion tide, superimposed with the rapid growth of overseas demand, the main lithium battery manufacturers accelerated their layout in Europe, and China’s leading lithium battery equipment enterprises will obtain new demand growth points.
Risk statement
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; New orders or delivery lower than expected; Risks of technology renewal; Risk of intensified market competition; Supply chain shortage risk, etc.
