Affected by the sharp rise of overseas Chinese concept stocks, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher today (March 16). At the beginning of the trading, the stock index fell rapidly and accelerated the diving, which failed to effectively boost the market in the early trading; In the afternoon, the index reversed dramatically. Led by financial stocks, it not only turned red smoothly, but also rose strongly. The Shanghai index walked out of the 100 point Changyang, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index performed more prominently.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 3.48% to 317071 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 4.02% to 1200096 points; The gem index rose 5.2% to 263508.
From the disk point of view, the general rising market reappeared A shares, the industry and the concept sector worked together to do more, and the local profit-making effect soared. In terms of industry, tourism hotels, airports, securities, batteries, cultural media, glass fiber, motors and other industries led the rise; In terms of theme stocks, online tourism, blade battery, brokerage concept, diamond cultivation, East West calculation, gallium nitride, yuanuniverse and other performances were gratifying.
In terms of capital, the central bank announced on March 16 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on March 16, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%. Today, the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase is due. Therefore, today’s open market realizes zero delivery and zero return.
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message surface
1. According to Xinhua news agency, on March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market problems. The meeting was presided over by Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and director of the finance committee, and comrades in charge of relevant departments attended the meeting. The meeting stressed that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities, actively introduce policies conducive to the market and prudently introduce contractionary policies. We should respond to the hot issues concerned by the market in a timely manner. All policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations.
2. According to the central bank’s website, at noon on March 16, Comrade Yi Gang, President of the people’s Bank of China and director of the office of the financial commission, presided over a meeting of cadres at or above the department level, conveyed and studied the spirit of the 51st special meeting of the financial Commission of the State Council, and studied and deployed the implementation work of the people’s Bank of China. Members of the party committees and vice presidents of the people’s Bank of China attended the meeting. The meeting mentioned that we should actively support the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises and maintain a reasonable monetary policy in the real economy. Adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, prevent and resolve risks in the real estate market, steadily promote and complete the rectification of large platform companies as soon as possible, promote the healthy and stable development of platform economy and improve international competitiveness. We will further strengthen inter departmental policy coordination, respond to hot issues of market concern in a timely manner, stabilize expectations, boost confidence, maintain the steady and healthy development of China’s economy, and jointly safeguard the stable development of the capital market.
3. According to the website of the CSRC, after the special meeting of the financial committee of the State Council was held on March 16, the Party committee of the CSRC quickly held an expanded meeting to convey and study the spirit of the meeting and make research and deployment on the implementation. The meeting mentioned that we should further promote high-level opening-up, strengthen practical cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, and jointly safeguard the healthy and stable development of the Hong Kong market. Continue to strengthen communication with US regulators and strive to reach an agreement on China US audit and supervision cooperation as soon as possible. We will promptly promote the implementation of new regulations on the supervision of overseas listing of enterprises, support all kinds of qualified enterprises to list abroad, and maintain smooth channels for overseas listing. Continue to support the rational financing of the real economy, actively cooperate with relevant departments, effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises, promote the standardized and healthy development of platform economy and improve international competitiveness.
4. According to the website of the CBRC, on the morning of March 16, Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party committee and chairman of the CBRC, presided over a special meeting to convey, study and implement the spirit of the meeting of the financial commission of the State Council, and make arrangements for the next step of banking and insurance supervision. The meeting called for active support for the smooth operation of the capital market. Actively introduce policies favorable to the market. We should vigorously support direct financing and promote the optimization of financing structure. Guide trust, financial management and insurance companies and other institutions to establish a long-term investment concept, carry out real professional investment and value investment, and become the backbone to promote the development of the capital market and maintain the stability of the capital market. We should give full play to the advantages of long-term investment of insurance funds and guide insurance institutions to allocate more funds to equity assets. Support insurance companies to increase capital market investment, especially stock investment of high-quality listed companies, through various channels such as direct investment, entrusted investment and public funds. We should increase the proportion of financial institutions issuing equity products and support insurance companies in issuing equity products. We should timely respond to hot issues concerned by the market and stabilize market expectations. We should actively strengthen communication and coordination with relevant departments to form a joint force to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations.
institutional views
For the market rebound, Bohai Securities believes that the repair factors of the emotional side dominate. In the short term, a strong rebound can not completely avoid the repeated process at the bottom of the market. However, the end of the policy is out. In the medium and long term, we continue to emphasize that the expectation of steady growth policy to promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point and rise of enterprise profits. After the recent process of panic and risk aversion, the probability of A-Shares is a relatively good low allocation opportunity in the year. It is suggested that investors should consider the long term and focus on the first quarter report and the performance expectation in the year.
Cinda Securities pointed out that strategically, 2022 will be a compressed version of 20182019, with the first half similar to 2018 and the second half similar to 2019 The adjustment speed since the beginning of the year has reached the quarterly adjustment speed of 2018. Compared with 2018, there were four rebounds during the period, mostly lasting for 3-4 weeks.
The agency further analyzed the impact of quarterly reports on the rebound rhythm. Quarterly report is an important verification period and a time window for correcting the matching degree of performance and valuation. The market rebounded before and after the disclosure period of the three quarterly reports in 2018.
The profit expectation in 2018 is gradually lowered. However, in the first quarter and the second quarter, there are still many primary industries with upward roe, but in the third quarter, it is difficult to find industries with upward roe. As a result, the rebound before and after the first and second quarterly reports appeared in the first half of the disclosure period, and the rebound after the third quarterly report appeared in the second half of the disclosure period. In short, the core time window of the rebound is from late March to April. A complete reversal requires one of the following three changes: crude oil has weakened for more than one quarter, real estate sales have stabilized and improved, and valuations have reached extreme values, which are not yet available.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that during the wrestling between internal policies and external risk constraints, the market volatility has been amplified, and institutional investors should make balanced allocation to deal with it. At the same time, after substantial adjustment, the valuation level of the market and some industries has returned to a historically low level, and the medium and long-term investment value has been very significant. We pay attention to the market in the third stage of growth and the rebound investment main line of the stable growth sector, which is the weakest constrained by external risks.
Main line 1: look forward to the medium-term investment opportunities in the third stage of growth style and pull out the valuation market. At present, it is a good time for layout. Specifically, we can focus on the strong growth main line industries represented by new energy (vehicles) and electronics and the industries expected to benefit from valuation diffusion represented by national defense and military industry and computers.
Main line 2: the sector with the weakest steady growth constrained by external risks. Pay attention to new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation and new power grid construction, as well as real estate and banks with the initial reversal of the recent boom.
Main line 3: medium and long-term investment opportunities for the recovery of service consumption and the rise in the price of mandatory consumer goods, especially after the recent correction due to the impact of the epidemic. Pay attention to the pharmaceutical sector prepared in advance to realize the recovery of service consumption and the travel chains such as airport, catering, tourism and leisure services after the repeated impact of the recent epidemic. In addition, the medium and long-term investment opportunities of rising prices of necessities also deserve attention, including dairy products, planting industry, chemical fertilizer, etc. In terms of theme, we will continue to pay attention to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
