Today (March 16), A-Shares staged a major counterattack. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have stepped out of the pattern of bottoming out and rising. In the morning, the three major stock indexes opened higher and fell back, and further dived. The weak situation was obvious. In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes rose violently. With the violent surge of the big financial sector, other industries and the concept sector were prompted to go long hand in hand, the index further rose and strengthened, and finally closed positive across the board.
In this regard, Guosheng securities previously said that with the gradual easing of the international situation and the upcoming landing of the boots of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Thursday morning (the basis point of the first interest rate increase and the guidelines for the subsequent interest rate increase and contraction table will be announced), the A-share market may usher in an oversold rebound after a continuous bottom.
At the same time, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that it is suggested to maintain defense, lengthen the cycle, wait for the market sentiment to stabilize after the bad situation is exhausted, and drive the recovery of the economy. In this process, it is suggested to focus on the counterattack potential of the undervalued sector of the market, as well as the high boom track stocks with strong industrial logic support and expected to accelerate the repair after fully digesting the valuation.
sector:
I. securities companies
Previously, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the brokerage index has been in a state of oversold. First, observe whether it can effectively stop the decline. If the decline can be effectively stopped, the securities sector is expected to have a restorative market, but the overall trend of weak shock consolidation will remain. It is expected that the brokerage sector will still focus on the structural market, and the scope and strength depend on the overall performance of the sector.
BOC International securities mentioned that the deepening reform of the capital market continued to advance, the undervalued value was more firm and bullish on securities companies. The recent decline of securities companies is mainly affected by overseas tightening expectations, the instability of the international situation, and the cooling of the A-share market and public fund market. Despite the emotional fluctuations caused by changes in the external environment, the continued deepening reform of the capital market is good for securities companies in the long run.
The agency further analyzed and continued to recommend the trademarks of leading and financial management characteristic bonds in combination with favorable policies, performance differentiation and long-term growth drivers: 1) the reform of registration system is imminent, improve the marketization level of capital market, and bring more opportunities to head investment banks with strong comprehensive ability and their direct investment and follow-up business. Market fluctuations will lead to significant differentiation of investment business, and the trading mode of head securities companies is expected to bring more stable performance.
2) although market fluctuations may lead to a temporary decline in the scale of public fund management business and consignment business in the wealth management industry chain, residents' wealth continues to accumulate, the policy of "housing without speculation" is unswerving, and the growth trend of wealth management demand for maintaining and increasing residents' wealth remains unchanged, which can still bring long-term growth contributions to securities companies.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the securities sector adheres to the valuation logic from cycle to growth. With the deepening reform of the capital market, the sector may welcome valuation repair. Recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , a leading securities firm that goes out of the bear market structure and continues to benefit from the improvement of the capital market environment; Recommend companies with flexible performance in asset management and wealth management, such as Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of Beijing Compass Technology Development Co.Ltd(300803) becoming an investor in the bankruptcy reorganization of wechat securities; It is recommended to pay attention to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) (H shares), and the insurance sector is recommended to pay attention to Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) .
II. Real estate development
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that from the perspective of the industry, the recent policy warm wind is blowing frequently, and we think we should strengthen our confidence at this time: ① "stability" is the core demand, which should not be expected to be in place in one step, but the direction is more important. ② The short-term problem is a fact, but it has been digested by the market, not to mention the dawn. ③ The "golden combination" of improved sales boom and rational land market is expected to appear, the profit level of the industry will improve, high-quality real estate enterprises can also return to growth, and alpha resonates with beta.
From the perspective of individual stocks, in the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit; In addition, Wuguan leading companies are expected to benefit from the lifting of real estate repression in the future, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. Recommended Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
For the real estate industry, the view of "maintaining the first quarter " is , which means maintaining the first quarter of the real estate industry. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, rongchuang China, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
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