1. What does configuration disk outflow mean? Since 2020, the configuration disk has only experienced three rounds of outflow, and the outbreak of the epidemic and the repetition of “exceeding expectations” can not be ignored. 1) From the end of February to March 2020, the outflow of configuration disk exceeded 10 billion for three weeks; 2) From July to October 2020, the configuration disk showed a slight outflow for seven weeks; 3) In the second week of March this year, the allocation disk flowed out about 13 billion in a single week. In conclusion, as the main component of funds going north, the allocation disk has basically shown a steady inflow trend for a long time, and only a few special cases may have phased outflow. In addition to being driven by the pressure of normalized outflow, the core commonality is that it is accompanied by the outbreak or unexpected repetition of the epidemic, which leads to the obvious outflow of funds from the allocation disk. Short term fluctuations in foreign investment are unavoidable, and the continued increase in medium and long-term allocation is still the general trend. Historical experience shows that the previous repeated normalization of the epidemic, the fermentation of geographical contradictions and the policy shift of the Federal Reserve have not seen the outflow of the allocation disk. The core factors leading to the outflow of the allocation disk are more from the “black swan like” emergencies, and directly affect the medium and long-term prediction of China’s economy. In the short term, under the multiple pressures of external geographical contradictions, high inflation and tight liquidity, the internal and external epidemic has been repeated more than expected, and the short-term fluctuations of foreign capital are still unavoidable. However, in the medium and long term, we continue to be optimistic about the nationalization of a shares, and the allocation of foreign capital is also expected to continue to increase a shares.
2. Overall configuration: the outflow in one week reached a new high in recent two years. Geopolitical conflicts were superimposed repeatedly and austerity expectations were strengthened. Funds going north had a significant outflow in a single week, reaching a new high in recent two years. From the perspective of fund type splitting, the trading disk and allocation disk have obviously left the market. Among them, the trading disk has a significant outflow for four consecutive weeks, with a net outflow of about 22.623 billion yuan, while the single week outflow of allocation disk has reached a new high since March 2020, with a net outflow of about 13.055 billion yuan. At the same time, funds from the South flowed in for three consecutive weeks, and the inflow rhythm continued to accelerate. Last week, the cumulative net inflow was about 12.11 billion yuan. As of March 11, the cumulative net inflow of northbound trading and allocation has reached – 48.231 billion yuan and 40.722 billion yuan respectively since this year.
3. Industry allocation: public utilities and military industry are among the top in terms of additional allocation. From the overall perspective, the net inflow of public utilities (+ 880 million yuan), national defense and military industry (+ 663 million yuan) and architectural decoration (+ 490 million yuan) ranks first, with the largest outflow from banks (- 4.808 billion yuan), food and beverage (- 4.163 billion yuan) and power equipment (- 4.139 billion yuan); From the perspective of fund type splitting: from the perspective of trading disk, the net inflow of national defense and military industry (+ 602 million yuan) is the largest, and the net outflow of power equipment (- 5.45 billion yuan) is the largest; From the perspective of configuration disk, the net inflow of non-ferrous metals (+ 2.695 billion yuan) is the largest, and the net outflow of food and beverage (- 2.7 billion yuan) is the largest.
4. Allocation of individual shares: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) increased its holdings, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) decreased its holdings. From an overall perspective, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (+ 1.439 billion yuan), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 1.177 billion yuan) and Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (+ 1.054 billion yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 4.934 billion yuan), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 2.210 billion yuan) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 1.681 billion yuan) mostly flowed out. From the perspective of fund type splitting, from the perspective of trading order, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (+ 567 million yuan), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (+ 388 million yuan) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (+ 361 million yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 2.446 billion yuan), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (- 1.406 billion yuan) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 1.310 billion yuan) mostly flowed out. From the perspective of configuration disk, Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (+ 1.673 billion yuan), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (+ 1.439 billion yuan) and Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (+ 1.231 billion yuan) are among the top net inflow; While Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (- 2.488 billion yuan), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (- 1.483 billion yuan) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (- 1.371 billion yuan) mostly flowed out.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. The global economy fluctuates more than expected; 3. Exchange rate depreciation risk.
