Index
On March 14, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 322353 points, down 2.60%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1206363 points, down 3.08%; The coal industry index closed at 268039 points, down 3.77%. The companies with the top three declines are: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) . The non-ferrous metals index closed at 521814 points, down 3.92%. The top three companies are: Jinzhou Jixiang Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603399) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) .
Comments
The nonferrous metals industry led the decline. The theme of electrolytic aluminum decreased significantly. Specifically, on the supply side, at present, China’s electrolytic aluminum production is mainly stable, and the resumption of production is mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Guangxi. The resumed production capacity has increased by 60000 tons compared with last week, and China’s electrolytic aluminum production has increased steadily; On the consumer side, Chinalco’s downstream construction started to pick up. Although the high aluminum price inhibited some downstream construction, the downstream entry and preparation after the aluminum price fell at the end of the week. At present, the Russian Ukrainian incident has eased, and since March, the Federal Reserve is about to enter the cycle of raising interest rates. The CPI of the United States in February continued to hit a 40 year high year-on-year. Under high inflation, Europe and the United States are facing potential stagflation risks, and it is difficult to see the driving force of rapid inflation of bulk commodities; The inhibition of high prices on downstream construction is relatively obvious, there is a certain accumulation of reserves, and the electrolytic aluminum supply side is in the process of continuous and stable resumption of production. Therefore, in terms of subsequent base metals, the price may fluctuate in the short term.
In terms of energy metals, the production, sales and battery installation data of new energy vehicles in February 2022 were in line with expectations. According to the China Automobile Association and the power battery alliance, the production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 368000 and 334000 respectively, up more than 180% year-on-year and down about 20% month on month, while the battery output in February was 31.8gwh, up + 236% year-on-year and flat month on month; The loading volume was 13.7gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 145% and a month on month increase of – 16%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and battery installation data in February were in line with expectations, and continued to be optimistic about the price of energy metals. The current valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable position. It is suggested to pay attention to two main investment lines. First, the battery factories with alleviated cost pressure and rebounded gross profit: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , etc; II. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc.
Industry dynamics
Western tungsten is currently raising cash to reopen the Plymouth tungsten mine and plans to increase production in the second largest tungsten reserve in the Western Hemisphere. (Changjiang nonferrous metals)
Company dynamics
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ): in 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 14.462 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.18%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.27%. （Wind）
Risk tip: the macro-economy is less than expected and geopolitical risks are escalating.
