Industry Review
During the reporting period (2022 / 2 / 282022 / 3 / 11), the mechanical equipment industry fell by 7.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.17pct. Among the secondary sub industries, the rail transit sector fell the least, by 3.59%, and the construction machinery sector fell the most, by 9.77%. Among the three sub industries mainly tracked, photovoltaic processing equipment, semiconductor equipment, industrial control equipment, special lithium battery equipment and laser equipment changed by 1.63%, - 2.51%, - 9.29%, - 9.89% and - 10.03% respectively.
In the industry performance since the beginning of the year, the five secondary sub industries of mechanical equipment all fell, the rail transit equipment sector fell the smallest, 7.03%, and the construction machinery sector fell the largest, 18.95%. The five tertiary sub industries tracked also fell, the photovoltaic processing equipment fell the smallest, 13.33%, and the laser equipment fell the largest, 20.39%.
In terms of valuation, as of March 11, 2022, the dynamic P / E ratio of the mechanical equipment industry was 22.85 times, at the historical quantile level of 17.5%, down 1.64 from 24.49 times on February 25, 2022, and the valuation level was lower than the median of Shenwan industry. Among the secondary sub industries, the valuation level of automation equipment is the highest, 42.80 times. Among the three sub industries mainly tracked, the valuation levels of semiconductor equipment and special equipment for lithium battery are high, 119.05 times and 113.27 times respectively.
Investment suggestions:
Lithium battery equipment: the downstream continues to maintain a high outlook, and the production expansion of battery plants is accelerated. It is recommended to pay attention to equipment manufacturers with strong delivery capacity. In January and February this year, the total output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) batteries was 61.43gw, with a year-on-year increase of 185.72%. In January and February, the total loading volume of power batteries was 29.86gw, with a year-on-year increase of 109.69%. The production and sales of power batteries were booming. The Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) capacity in 2021 will be about 232gw. It is estimated that the capacity will reach 406gw in 2022 and 772gw in 2025 (sole proprietorship + joint venture). It is estimated that the capacity of Byd Company Limited(002594) battery in 2021 will be 135gw, the capacity is expected to reach 280gw in 2022, and the capacity is planned to be about 400gw in 2025. The capacity of Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) battery will be about 50gw in 2021. It is estimated that the capacity will reach 100gw in 2022, and the planned capacity will exceed 300gw in 2025. Among unlisted companies, honeycomb energy has a planned capacity of 600gw in 2025 and AVIC lithium battery has a planned capacity of 500gw in 2025. Power battery enterprises accelerated production expansion. The expansion of battery capacity requires equipment enterprises to have appropriate supply capacity, and equipment enterprises with strong supply capacity will get the order preference of battery factory.
Photovoltaic equipment: TOPCON and heterojunction cells are progressing faster than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to battery equipment companies with mature technical routes. On March 12, 2022, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) gw grade 210 heterojunction production line went offline for the first time. Jingke energy's 8gwtopcon battery production line was officially put into operation in January this year. The phase I 8gwtopcon production line of Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) was started. It is expected to enter the equipment commissioning stage at the end of the second quarter. It is expected that the heterojunction battery capacity will exceed 10GW and the Topcon battery capacity is expected to reach 30GW this year. At the current time point, the cost of TOPCON is close to perc, which is expected to form a cost advantage over perc within this year. The cost pressure of heterojunction is still large in the short term, and the cost reduction needs the force of the equipment end. It is suggested to pay attention to the companies with mass production capacity of TOPCON equipment and the companies with cost reduction potential of heterojunction equipment.
Semiconductor equipment: downstream Fabs actively expand production, driving high prosperity at the equipment end. It is suggested to pay attention to manufacturers with high revenue and order growth. From January to February 2022, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) achieved an operating revenue of 1.366 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 135%; New orders exceeded 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 60% Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) achieved an operating income of 199 million yuan, an increase of 171.97% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 105 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 241.35%. In the case of chip shortage, wafer factories have increased capital expenditure. Under the background of localization and substitution of semiconductor equipment, the performance of Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers is expected to grow rapidly.
To sum up, lithium battery, photovoltaic equipment and semiconductor equipment have maintained a high outlook, and key companies in relevant industries have experienced a deep decline. It is suggested to increase the allocation of high-quality companies.
Risk tips:
The rise of lithium price affects the sales volume of new energy vehicles; The problem of power grid consumption affects the installed capacity of photovoltaic; Key parts are highly dependent on foreign countries.
