Macro categories:
Be alert to the adjustment pressure of global tightening policies on risky assets. At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on March 17, the US interest rate meeting in March will be ushered in. At present, the rising inflation in the world is forcing the major central banks to accelerate the pace of tightening. The Fed's interest rate hike in March is certain, and the follow-up focus is on the path of table contraction. We need to be vigilant against the negative impact of shrinking the balance sheet on financial assets. We back test that since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, with a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rates as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68. In addition, the correlation of the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet for soft commodities (- 0.81) and sideline commodities (- 0.0) was higher in 2017, while that of the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet for soft commodities (- 0.81).
China's economic data in February slightly exceeded expectations, including industrial production, infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment. However, on the whole, there is a certain deviation between the economic data and high-frequency and forward-looking data. We think we still need to see more arguments to verify the economic bottom. In addition, the expectation of MLF interest rate reduction failed. Under the impact of multiple factors such as China's epidemic, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the weak financial data in February, if the currency fails to loosen marginally, A-Shares will remain neutral in the short term.
In addition, the issuance of special bonds by China's real estate enterprises in the middle of next week was significantly lower than that in the middle of next week. In addition, the issuance of special bonds by China's real estate enterprises was significantly lower than that in the middle of next week. According to our estimation, the issuance of special bonds by China's real estate enterprises was lower than that in the middle of next week. In addition, the issuance of new bonds by China's infrastructure enterprises was significantly lower than that in the last three months. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At the level of precious metals, the opportunity of bargain hunting will be grasped after the boots of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting are landed; The stock index has been weak due to the impact of China's epidemic, China US relations and financial data in February. In the follow-up, it needs to wait for the easing signal of the central bank and turn neutral in the short term.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
