The central bank's net investment in MLF operation was 100 billion yuan, but the interest rate remained unchanged, which was in line with our expectations, while the market expectation of interest rate reduction failed. The market expectation of interest rate reduction comes from the weak credit in February, especially the negative increase of medium and long-term loans of residents. However, from January to February, the sales area of commercial housing increased by an average of 3.6% in three years, significantly better than that in the fourth quarter of last year. From historical experience, residents' medium and long-term loans sometimes can not accurately reflect the marginal changes in housing sales. The growth rate of China's investment, consumption and industrial added value from January to February announced yesterday was significantly higher than expected, and the previously announced export data was also much higher than expected. China's economy has made a good start. This shows that China's economy has strong resilience and that the steady growth policy is taking effect.
Asset performance and capital changes:
The top five prices of Chinese commodities: stainless steel 2.35%, thread 1.21%, Liandou 1.01%, Shanghai nickel 0.96%, soda ash 0.06%; Low sulfur fuel oil - 9.74%, crude oil - 7.85%, fuel oil - 7.41%, asphalt - 7.35%, ferrosilicon - 4.05% precipitation capital inflow and outflow: thread 2.42, Shanghai tin 0.66, Liandou 0.41, styrene 0.37, stainless steel 0.32; Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from crude oil -4.48, Shanghai nickel -3.36, Shanghai gold -3.11, soybean meal -2.06 and soybean oil-2.03 sectors (100 million yuan): nonferrous metals-3.01, black building materials-1.63, precious metals-4.52, energy and chemical industry-11.74, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) 12.06
Important news and economic data:
The central bank continued to increase MLF in the open market, but the interest rate remained unchanged, which did not meet market expectations.
From January to February, fixed asset investment increased by 12.2% year-on-year, expected to be 5.3%, and increased by 4.9% year-on-year. From January to February, the retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, expected to be 4.6%, and increased by 1.7% year-on-year in December last year. From January to February, the industrial added value increased by 7.5% year-on-year, expected to be 3.2%, and increased by 4.3% year-on-year in December last year.
PPI in the United States in February increased by 10.0% year-on-year, expected to increase by 10.0%, and the previous value increased by 9.7%; The month on month increase was 0.8%, the expected increase was 0.9%, and the previous value increased by 1.0% to 1.2%.
The euro zone ZEW Economic climate index recorded - 38.7 in March, the lowest since March 2020, with the previous value of 48.6; The current economic situation index was -21.9, compared with the previous value of 0.6.
Risk tip: the decline of China's real estate and the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine
