Key points of the report:
Industrial added value increased by 7.5% from January to February:
1) the GDP growth level implied by 7.5% IP is about 7%, which is obviously significantly higher than the potential growth rate. Even if the economy completely returns to before the epidemic, its potential growth rate is only about 6%;
2) short term economic growth and social finance growth are also difficult to echo each other. Although social finance has generally accelerated in nearly half a year, its slope is significantly lower than that of economic rise;
3) the quarter on quarter growth of industrial added value continues to slow down. The result of rolling 12m month on month multiplication is nearly 3% lower than the actually published IP data, which is not common in history.
There is no fight between the real estate data of the Bureau of statistics. Whether the real estate is stable or not may need to be further confirmed:
1) whether it is real estate sales, new construction or investment data, the official caliber is cumulative year-on-year. The data of this caliber will change significantly after switching at the end of the year and the beginning of the year;
2) if we switch to the same period of the current month, the real estate sales, new construction and investment have improved more or less from January to February this year. Even if the sales and new construction are still in the state of negative growth, the range of negative growth has also converged;
3) however, it is worth considering that the real estate sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities have not stabilized even under the year-on-year caliber of the current month, which is different from the data of the Bureau of statistics in trend.
Infrastructure has indeed become the first force for steady growth:
1) the bright performance of infrastructure construction is reasonable. After all, according to the actual caliber, infrastructure construction once fell to a low level of – 8%, which means that there is a high space for acceleration of infrastructure construction;
2) at present, the actual growth of infrastructure has returned to near zero growth, which is almost closed with the growth curve of PPP warehousing projects. However, considering that PPP warehousing projects are still slowing down, it remains to be seen whether infrastructure can further accelerate in the future.
There are two main reasons for the recovery of consumption, but there may be little room for further improvement:
1) the passenger volume of Spring Festival in 2022 increased by more than 20% year-on-year, which can be seen from the new high M0 in January, which led to the recovery of catering consumption;
2) automobile is also an important driving force for the recovery of consumption. After all, in the current wide monetary environment and blocked credit supply, it is possible that more credit supply will go to automobile sales;
3) however, if consumption continues to rise, its space is limited. After all, due to the impact of real estate consumption, the potential consumption level should be lower than that in 2019, which means that the rising space of subsequent actual consumption growth is less than 2%.
Among them, the only unrestricted force is manufacturing investment, and the real growth of manufacturing investment has accelerated by more than 6%. However, manufacturing investment is a second-order slow variable after all, and it is difficult for us to determine the direction of economic growth by manufacturing investment.
From this point of view, the correction of the economy should be short-term and intense, and there is no continuous and slow correction process as we thought before:
1) it was difficult for the economy to stabilize during the decline of PPI. We should have known for a long time that even if the economy improves, the improvement should be correction rather than cyclical recovery;
2) now it seems that it is realistic to achieve the economic target of 5.5% this year, but we should be prepared for the high before the low after the economy.
After the one-time calibration of economic growth, the subsequent economic combination may be more like a typical recession combination:
1) in this period, there will still be some pressure on the equity market due to the decline of nominal growth;
2) at present, the decline of the bond market is not enough, and the current yield level has not even risen to the position before the expected fermentation of the interest rate cut, which means that the bond market has left room for the correction of economic growth, and the impact of the variable of economic fundamentals on the bond market may not be significant this year.
Risk tip: monetary policy exceeded expectations and economic recovery exceeded expectations.
