14. The development plan for the raw material industry was issued, requiring that the production capacity of the cement industry should be reduced but not increased; The three southern provinces of Yunnan, Jiangxi and Jiangsu respectively released peak shifting production plans for 2022, which is generally tighter than that in 2021
This week, the sector rose and outperformed the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 8166.8 points, up 1.3%, outperforming Wande a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 14.75 times, up 0.20 from last week.
Re emphasize the opportunities of pipe industry: 1 The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines, and the demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022; 2. The main raw materials PVC, PE and PPR have reached the inflection point and entered the downstream channel; 3. Several rounds of price increases in the early stage have been basically implemented, and the profitability is expected to be improved; 4. There was a lot of decline in the early stage and the current valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the bottom-up logic of the industry and focus on the b-end leader Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
Cement is likely to benefit from infrastructure recovery and loose real estate. It is expected to usher in recovery in 2022: affected by the late fiscal rhythm and the tightening of real estate financing policies, the demand for cement in 2021 is general. Looking forward to 2022, the logic supporting cement demand mainly includes: 1. The accelerated issuance of special bonds in the second half of 2021 is expected to form infrastructure demand in the first half of 2022. The issuance of special bonds is approved and issued earlier, the certainty of financial advance in 2022 is high, and 2. There is great downward pressure on the economy in 2022, Infrastructure and real estate, as a means of stimulating economic growth, are more likely to be relaxed in policy, and the central government has released easing signals for many times; The supply of cement industry is expected to shrink steadily in 2022, mainly because: 1 The double control standard of energy consumption is stricter, 2 With the increasing pressure of emission reduction in the context of double carbon, it is difficult for the cement industry to significantly reduce carbon while maintaining output. Production reduction may become the main means, 3 Peak shifting production plans are tightening in most provinces. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is still in a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader, etc.
Waterproof benefits from the increment of standard raising and the development of BIPV, and the leading layout has been accelerated: the general code for waterproofing of building and municipal engineering (Draft for comments) has been published for nearly three years. With Chengdu Province taking the lead in issuing a document requiring the increment of waterproof standard raising, the new regulations for the increment of waterproof standard raising have been gradually implemented. The layout of BIPV needs to be based on polymer waterproof materials. The rapid layout of BIPV is expected to provide more incremental demand for waterproof. At present, the leader has accelerated the layout of polymer coiled materials required by BIPV. It is recommended that Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) be the leading polymer waterproof coiled material layout required by BIPV and Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) be the leader with accelerated capacity layout.
Key recommendation
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . At present, the valuation of the cement sector is at a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader, etc. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance.
