Economic data significantly exceeded market expectations; Real estate investment rebounded in a single month, but land purchase, construction and sales are still declining, and it still takes time to reach the bottom; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the epidemic are not reflected in the data from January to February.
From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 7.5%, significantly higher than the 3.2% expected by the market. From the perspective of industry classification, from January to February, the industrial added value of mining industry increased by 9.8% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 7.3%, the public utilities increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the high-tech industry increased by 14.4% year-on-year. Under the influence of the monetary policy of easing credit at the beginning of the year and the positive fiscal policy, industrial production maintained a continuous positive trend.
From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of social zero was 6.7%, and the growth rate of social zero except cars was 7.0%. Excluding price factors, the total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to February actually increased by 4.9% year-on-year. Social zero performed well from January to February, or was affected by the low base effect of consumption during the Spring Festival holiday and the dual impact driven by consumption during the Winter Olympics.
The growth rate of private investment was 1.2% in December and 2.2% in November. By category, manufacturing investment increased by 20.9% year-on-year from January to February, infrastructure investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and real estate investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year.
From January to February, the cumulative land purchase area and land transaction price decreased by 42.3% and 26.7% respectively year-on-year. The newly started area of real estate decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, the construction area increased by 1.8% year-on-year, and the completed area decreased by 9.8% year-on-year. The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 9.6% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of commercial housing decreased by 19.3% year-on-year. The weak real estate sales is obviously reflected in the negative year-on-year growth of sales area and sales. At the same time, the area for sale has increased significantly year-on-year. The weak sales also affected the source of real estate investment funds. It should be noted that, on the one hand, whether there is a downward inflection point in residents' prediction of house prices; on the other hand, under the influence of covid-19 epidemic, the global economy has been weak for two consecutive years, and residents' income expectations have not been improved, which may affect the driving effect of real estate policy relaxation on commercial housing sales.
The economic opening performance significantly exceeded market expectations. The performance of economic data from January to February significantly exceeded market expectations, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment increased compared with 2021, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value and social zero increased compared with December 2021. We believe that behind the recovery of economic data from January to February, there are the positive effects of monetary policy, wide credit and pre fiscal expenditure. However, from the point of time, the negative effects of overseas Russian Ukrainian conflict and the rebound of epidemic in many places in China have not been reflected. Looking back, the problems facing the economic outlook include the rise in energy, non-ferrous metals and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the impact of imported inflation on China, the production pressure caused by the continued rise in the cost of raw materials for enterprises, and the negative impact of the tightening of epidemic prevention and control policies in many parts of the country on the employment, consumption and residents' income of service-oriented industries.
Under the influence of internal and external impact factors, macro policy easing may increase. The two sessions set China's GDP growth target at about 5.5% in 2022. Considering that under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the overseas real GDP growth rate may be reduced, and the pull of foreign demand on China's economy may be further weakened, domestic demand has become an important starting point to achieve the economic growth target. Combined with the economic data of the previous two months, we believe that for the manufacturing industry, the current operating pressure of market entities is mainly on the cost side. For the service industry, the current pressure is mainly due to the discontinuous process of demand recovery under the disturbance of the epidemic. The macro policy combination of "tax reduction and fee reduction + interest rate reduction" can better solve the current production and operation difficulties of Chinese economic entities.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.