In February 2022, affected by foreign inflation, monetary policy tightening in developed countries, geopolitical conflict tension and other factors, combined with the repeated suppression of China’s epidemic, consumption and investment power were still insufficient, and the risks faced by economic growth increased. However, in the context of “steady growth” as the primary task of economic development this year, with the continuous development of China’s monetary policy and the policy of ensuring supply and price stability, the downward momentum of the economy has been eased to a certain extent, the pace of resumption of work and production after the festival has accelerated, and the indicators of industrial added value, consumption, investment, import and export have exceeded market expectations. Nevertheless, compared with the previous growth rate, the current overall economic growth momentum is still weak, and the growth rate of money and credit demand indicators is running at a low level.
From the demand side, the covid-19 epidemic eased slightly, which promoted the recovery of catering consumption, achieved initial results in promoting automobile consumption policies and the general rise of non food prices. From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 5.0 percentage points higher than that in December last year, 12.7% higher than that in January to February 2019, and the average growth rate in three years was 4.1%.; Although the investment in real estate development continued to weaken, which reduced the investment growth rate to a certain extent, the manufacturing investment continued to maintain a high level and the infrastructure investment improved significantly, which finally pushed the growth rate of fixed asset investment much higher than expected. The cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment from January to February was 12.2%, 7.3 percentage points higher than that from January to December of last year and 13.2% higher than that from January to February of 2019, The three-year average growth rate is 4.2%; From January to February, in dollar terms, China’s total import and export value was 973.45 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the export was 544.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%; Imports amounted to 428.75 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.5% year-on-year; The trade surplus was US $115.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. In terms of exports, overseas demand is still relatively strong and export growth remains resilient, but high base effect, weakening export substitution effect and geopolitical risks still suppress export growth. In terms of import, the double factors of rising energy prices and RCEP agreement supported the import growth rate to remain high, but the import growth rate fell due to the high base effect and the weakening of China’s demand.
From the supply side, thanks to the continuous efforts of China’s steady growth policy, the 18 specific measures proposed in five major aspects, such as fiscal tax policy and financial credit policy, have promoted the steady growth of industrial economy, contributed to the stable recovery of economic operation, and sustained growth of industrial output. From January to February, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year after deducting price factors, It is 3.2 percentage points faster than that in December 2021 and 1.4 percentage points faster than the two-year average growth rate in 2021. Compared with last year, the pace of resumption of work and production after the festival was accelerated. Some enterprises celebrated the new year on the spot, and the shutdown time during the Spring Festival was shortened, which contributed to the improvement of output.
In terms of price, affected by the Spring Festival and international energy price fluctuations caused by frequent disturbances at the supply side, CPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year in February, the same as that of the previous month, up 0.6% month on month and 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil and nonferrous metal prices, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , nonferrous metal related industries saw their prices rise, and industrial product prices rebounded. In February, PPI increased by 8.8% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, up 0.5% month on month and up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of money and finance, residents’ credit demand was weak. In February, new RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan; Medium – and long-term loans increased significantly, and the scale of social financing increased by 1.19 trillion yuan, 534.3 billion yuan less than the same period last year; The intensity of fiscal expenditure weakened, and the balance of broad money (M2) was 244.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. In terms of new RMB loans, residents’ credit demand is weak, and credit fell year-on-year; In terms of social finance, credit increased less year-on-year, which depressed the increment of social finance; In terms of the year-on-year growth rate of M2, the strength of fiscal expenditure weakened, which depressed the year-on-year growth rate of M2.
