Events
On March 15, the Bureau of statistics released economic data from January to February, far exceeding market expectations. Among them, fixed investment increased by 12.2% year-on-year, 7.3 percentage points higher than that in 2021; Social zero rose 6.7% year-on-year, an increase of 5.0 percentage points over the previous month; The added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.
The central bank carried out 200 billion yuan one-year MLF operation and 10 billion yuan seven-day open market reverse repurchase operation, and the bid winning interest rates were 2.85% and 2.10% respectively. Today, the 10 billion yuan reverse repo and 100 billion yuan MLF expired. The MLF continued to be equivalent and excessive for two consecutive months, and the liquidity of the banking system was reasonably abundant.
Key investment points
Key investment points
1. Economic improvement: the overall economic data from January to February exceeded expectations and welcomed a good start. In particular, the investment has made significant efforts, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 12%, which is a high point in five years. The manufacturing industry continued its strong trend, the growth rate of infrastructure jumped sharply, and the real estate investment was better than expected, but it was more price contribution, and the sub items were still under pressure. The export toughness remained, the social zero growth rate rebounded at a low level, and the growth rate reached a new high since August 2021. The steady growth policy continued to work, and the effect gradually appeared.
2. Challenges remain: consumption, small and micro enterprises and real estate are the main concerns. The epidemic broke out in many places, and the service consumption was relatively low; With the rise of imported inflation, the operating difficulties of small and micro enterprises are further highlighted; Constant external disturbance affects the export toughness; The real estate is still in the process of bottoming out, and the performance of itemized data is poor. In February, the medium and long-term loans of residents in social finance continued to increase less, decreasing by 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 457.2 billion yuan, a new low since records.
3. Inflation is controllable: both PPI and CPI are low, so we should be vigilant against imported inflation risks. PPI continued to fall year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrowed. From decline to rise, mainly due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the sharp rise in the prices of crude oil, metals, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and other bulk commodities, and the increased risk of imported inflation. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI was the same as that of last month, ending the downward trend since November last year, but it was still low overall, mainly dragged down by food items, and pork prices were still in the process of bottoming out. The month on month rise was mainly driven by the Spring Festival, oil prices and other factors, and food, tobacco and alcohol, transportation and communication increased significantly. The lard cycle is misplaced, the ppi-cpi scissors gap is narrowed, and the overall inflation risk is relatively controllable.
4. Liquidity: with China as the main player, it is still necessary to stabilize the growth of broad currency, and the window period for reducing reserve requirements and interest rates is still in place. MLF continued its equivalent excess production for two consecutive months, and the expectation of interest rate reduction in March failed. On the one hand, the economic data from January to February performed well. At present, the focus of monetary policy is to broaden credit rather than broad money. It is more to unblock the mechanism from wide money to wide credit, and give play to the precise drip irrigation effect of structural monetary policy tools rather than the stimulation of aggregate tools. On the other hand, on the eve of the Fed's interest rate hike in March, the interest rate gap between China and the United States was at the low level of previous overseas interest rate hike cycles, and the risks of capital outflow and exchange rate fluctuations urgently need to be prevented, especially under the background of obvious pressure on China concept stocks and Hong Kong stocks and continuous and substantial outflow of northward funds. Steady growth still needs the escort of monetary policy. The window period for the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in the second quarter is still in place, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates in March and April are still in place.
5. Bond market: the economic bottom has not been consolidated, and there is still a last chance for the bond market. Since this year, the bond market has continued to fluctuate and adjust: the first wave was the record of Tianliang social finance in January. The market is worried that the improvement of credit will suppress the bond market; The second wave is that since February, the real estate regulation policy has been gradually relaxed. The market is worried that the real estate will become the starting point of wide credit, and the improvement is expected to trigger the adjustment of the bond market. Combined with the latest data, steady growth and wide credit do have some results, but they are not reliable. The economic bottom is difficult to achieve overnight. The credit inflection point has not been confirmed. Steady growth still needs to continue. The market is still expected to cut interest rates and standards in the future. There is still a final opportunity for the bond market after adjustment in the first half of the year, but the space will not be too large. After the confirmation of the economic end in the second half of the year, CPI also has the upper action force, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of bond market adjustment.
6. Stock market: wait for the oversold rebound when the bad situation is exhausted. In the short term, stay on the defensive and wait for the attack. Pay attention to the three indicators. The third impact of the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine - the acceleration of liquidity shocks, the warming of global risk aversion, the continuous outflow of funds to the North (nearly 65 billion yuan has been sold in March, a record), the continuous sharp adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, the concentrated flight of selling pressure, and the drastic market adjustment. At present, the valuation quantile of major indexes has been at a relatively low level, and the medium and long-term allocation value is prominent. However, short-term adjustment still needs time to change space. After the landing of the Fed's interest rate hike boots, the short-term oversold rebound is expected. It is suggested to pay attention to the three indicators of crude oil price, northward capital and US bond interest rate. When the crude oil price falls (the risk of overseas stagflation eases), the net inflow of funds to the north is restored (the risk of capital outflow is reduced), the US bond interest rate tends to be flat (the suppression of overvalued value is eased), and the risk appetite of the A-share market is gradually repaired, especially the main line of steady growth and high boom growth.
Risk tips
(1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated
(2) the policy is not as expected
(3) large scale geopolitical conflict
