Automobile cycle positioning: at present, the inventory cycle of the automobile industry is in the passive replenishment stage
At the end of this round of active replenishment cycle, the industry is expected to enter the passive replenishment stage in May. In the passive replenishment stage, the investment feature of the automobile sector is the replenishment of stagflation stocks within the sector.
The auto parts sector has ushered in medium-term and long-term configuration opportunities
The current cycle positioning of the auto cycle is conducive to the valuation and repair of the parts sector: the sales growth of the auto industry shows significant cyclical characteristics, and the prosperity is driven by the inventory cycle. The auto cycle bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2019. After the passive destocking (recovery period) in 2020 and the active replenishment (overheating period) in the first half of 2021, the industry is in a passive replenishment (stagflation period) at this stage. In the stagflation period, the investment feature of the automobile sector is that the stagflation stocks within the sector make up for the rise. After experiencing the recovery period and overheating period of the industry, the parts sector is the main stagflation sector during the stagflation period. Subsequently, with the “normalization” of chip supply, the industry replenishment will drive the revenue growth of the parts industry upward.
Auto parts is the main investment direction in the next round of production capacity cycle of the industry, and is expected to produce a global leading enterprise: the SUV penetration rate exceeded 10% in 2011, opening the zhugra cycle of the industry for about 10 years. In 2021, the penetration rate of electric vehicles exceeded 10%. As an important intelligent hardware, the electronic and electrical architecture of automobiles is changing from distributed to domain centralized. In the ten-year cycle, the penetration rate of intelligent electric vehicles has increased rapidly and is opening a new round of zhugra cycle in the industry. The first half of electrification has created a number of global leading companies such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . The second half of intelligence is expected to create a new batch of global leading auto parts enterprises in the next 10 years. The auto parts sector is the main investment direction of the production capacity cycle in the next 10 years.
How to select Auto Parts Companies: we believe that the trend of automotive electronic and electrical architecture from distributed to three domains will become an important stock selection clue for auto parts. Among them, it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) in the intelligent cockpit domain, and the penetration rate of wire controlled chassis in the automatic driving domain is expected to accelerate in the next round of vehicle inventory cycle. Recommended faucet Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , recommended attention to Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) .
Investment advice
This round of active replenishment cycle has ended, and the industry is expected to enter the passive replenishment stage in May. The passenger car sector has been fully repaired after valuation in the recovery period, with a significant premium over the parts sector. There may be only band opportunities in the passenger car sector. At the same time, the profit growth of passenger cars was lower than that of spare parts. After the replenishment cycle was opened, the valuation of the sector began to fluctuate or shrink, and the performance was king. The automobile sector is likely to generate sub industries in rotation, and the parts sector is expected to become the optimal configuration. For passenger cars, it is recommended to focus on Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ; The parts section recommends Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical And Electronic Co.Ltd(300695) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (covered by the communication group).
Risk tip: the squeeze of real estate on consumption and the cut-off of chip supply lead to lower than expected car sales; The higher than expected rise in the cost of raw materials led to the low gross profit margin of the automotive industry.
