Core view
In February, the sales volume of pigs of listed pig enterprises was – 28% month on month. In February, the total sales volume of pigs of listed breeding enterprises in China was about 119610000 heads; Considering the factors of the company’s disclosure method, excluding the chain comparison of Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) calculation, 12 listed aquaculture enterprises listed in February, with a chain comparison of – 27.91%. Except for Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) pig sales, other listed breeding enterprises maintained a downward trend, with a month on month decrease of 4% – 48%; Among them, the chain decline of more than 30% is mainly Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) . Considering that February is the lunar new year, the operating rate is low, and there are some objective factors for the decline of the slaughter volume of breeding enterprises.
In February, the price of pigs in pig enterprises was – 11% month on month, and the average weight of pigs released increased slightly month on month. 1) the selling price of pigs in breeding enterprises continued to decline, and the average weight of pigs released increased slightly month on month. In February 22, the average price of pigs in the industry was about 12.96 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of – 11.35%. The average selling price of pigs of listed breeding enterprises in February was 11.88 yuan / kg (excluding Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) ), with a month on month ratio of – 11.08%, lower than the industry average price of 8.3%. The breeding business is in the process of deep losses. In terms of average weight, the average weight of listed breeding enterprises in February 22 was mainly increased, which was at a low level in the cycle as a whole, with a corresponding average of about 115.29kg (mom + 1.74%). According to the statistics of Yongyi data, the average weight of slaughter in February was about 116.38kg. The weight of listed breeding enterprises is lower than the industry level. 2) The depth of losses in the breeding industry has intensified. In February, the average monthly loss of self breeding and self curing pigs was 437.91 yuan / head, which has been losing money for two consecutive months. Considering the continuous downward trend of pig prices in March, the average price in March is expected to continue to decline, and the industry is still in deep losses. On March 11, 22, the weekly loss of breeding and autotrophy fell to 517.85 yuan / head, entering the extremely deep loss in September of 21 again. At the same time, the profit of outsourcing piglet breeding has gradually increased (- 193.5 yuan / head).
From January to February, the price of pig feed increased by + 3% year-on-year, and the output increased slightly. In January and February of 22 years, the output of pig feed in China was 12.02 million tons and 9.24 million tons respectively, with a total of + 2.9% year-on-year and – 10% and – 23% month on month respectively. Compared with the beginning of the 21st century, the consumption of pig feed still increased, which indirectly means that the supply of pigs is still higher than the level in the beginning of the 21st century. From a month on month perspective, excluding the Spring Festival factor, the overall feed is still in a downward state, which means that the de industrialization of production capacity continues to be carried out to a certain extent. Recently, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, wheat, corn, soybean meal and soybean all showed a significant upward trend. From the beginning of the year to March 14, the spot price of corn (Ministry of Agriculture) increased by 2.8%, and the closing price of CBOT corn, soybean and soybean meal increased by 25.7%, 24.9% and 21.3%. About 85% of China’s soybean consumption comes from imports, which is highly dependent on the world. In February 22, the price of fattening pig mixture was 3570 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.2% and a month on month increase of + 2%. Since the beginning of the 21st century, feed prices have accelerated month on month.
Investment suggestions considering the continuous impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the high price pattern of feed raw materials, we believe that the overall feed price may rise again in 22 years, putting great pressure on the downstream breeding cost. In the context of the current downturn / continuous decline in pig prices, the upward cost will only bring greater cash flow pressure to farmers, and the capacity may accelerate. At the investment level, the pig cycle is a sector market, which can be actively concerned. The average head market value is still at a historically low level, with significant potential space. It is suggested to focus on “leading” enterprises, including Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ( Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) . SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ( Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) . SZ), New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ( New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) . SZ); Second, “small and beautiful” enterprises, including Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) ( Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) . SZ), Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) ( Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . SZ), Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) ( Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) . SH), etc.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Risk of epidemic disease; The risk that the pig price is lower than expected, etc
