Zhou view: optimistic about the continuation of the rise of lithium, cobalt and rare earth, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum continues to repair
The installed capacity of Sanyuan continues to rise, and the price of lithium and cobalt continues to rise strongly. In November, the retail sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars was 378000, with a year-on-year increase of 122.3% and a month on month increase of 19.8%; From January to November, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles totaled 2.514 million, a year-on-year increase of 178.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 20% in November and reached 13.9% from January to November. In November, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output totaled 28.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 121.8% and a month on month increase of 12.4%. Among them, the output of ternary battery was 10.4gwh, accounting for 36.8% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 42.6% and a month on month increase of 12.9%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 17.8gwh, accounting for 63.0% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 229.2% and a month on month increase of 12.0%. The United States has set an electric vehicle sales target of 50% in 2030, and the new energy expectations of China, the United States and Europe are rising. Recently, battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide continued to rise, the installed capacity of high nickel ternary outside China gradually increased, and the electric carbon exceeded 270000 yuan / ton; In the medium term, it is optimistic that the global trend of high nickel will accelerate. Under the disturbance of cobalt resource supply, the price is expected to exceed 500000 yuan / ton. Lithium salt enterprises with resource advantages are expected to fully enjoy price elasticity, and the integration of cobalt and nickel precursor materials is expected to benefit from both volume and price. Elastic angle of the object of interest: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) ; Long period angle: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) . Cobalt concerns Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Steady supply rigidity & high demand growth in many aspects, and the growth of rare earth magnetic materials is expected to continue. Supply rigidity Optimization: after the capacity ramp up and raw material inventory removal in 2017-2021, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may increase steadily, with the implementation of integration and supply rigidity optimization. In the short and medium term, with the implementation of the new energy efficiency standards, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in China’s household appliances / NdFeB penetration rate continues to increase, which is expected to lead to an annual growth rate of more than 45% for air conditioning magnetic materials from 2021 to 2022; In the long run, the global new energy vehicles maintain a high growth rate. It is expected that with the increase of penetration rate, the demand for high-performance Nd-Fe-B will pull more than 60000 tons (by 2025), the consumer electronics will stabilize, the industrial motor will accelerate the growth, the leading magnetic material factory will continue to expand, and the gross profit margin of the industrial chain will fully return. Short term strong elastic regression of rare earth, focusing on China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) , Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) . In the medium and long term, the disturbance and weakening of magnetic raw materials realize price transmission and the improvement of product structure, which is expected to usher in the simultaneous rise of volume and price. Pay attention to Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , etc.
Supply is limited, and the profits of the aluminum industry continue to repair. Recently, the coal price has remained stable, the alumina price has been slightly adjusted, the cost center has dropped, the aluminum price has stabilized to more than 20000 yuan / ton, and the unit profit has been repaired to about 3000 yuan / ton. Under the background of carbon neutralization, the total amount of electrolytic aluminum is controllable, the proportion of clean energy is increased, and the bottleneck of hydropower resources in Southwest China. Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangxi, Qinghai and other regions are limited by power supply. Xinjiang and Guizhou are facing capacity and subsidy adjustment, and the utilization rate of operating electrolytic aluminum capacity and the release of new capacity are lower than expected. On the demand side, the completion data has maintained a high growth since February 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of real estate completion in October is still 16%, and the monthly output of new energy vehicles continues to reach a new high. Even considering the pessimistic expectation of real estate, it is still expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand. Recommend Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , pay attention to Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , China Hongqiao.
Metal prices: precious metal prices rose slightly. Last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded expectations, US bond yields fell, and gold prices rebounded. COMEX gold and silver rose 0.93% and 1.8% respectively, LME palladium fell 2.2%, and Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver remained stable. The market expects the fed to raise interest rates 2-3 times in 2022, and the gold price may continue to fluctuate. Industrial metal differentiation. The prices of aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel rose by 0.04%, 0.37%, 0.54% and 0.27% respectively, and the prices of copper and tin were callback by 0.64% and 0.32% respectively. In the medium term, overseas infrastructure policy stimulus + global recovery is still inertia, and new energy is expected to bring copper and zinc with strong sensitivity to emerging economies and electrolytic aluminum related to the post real estate cycle is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Rare earth prices rebounded slightly. Last week, praseodymium neodymium oxide and terbium oxide increased slightly by 0.59% and 0.9%. The overall pick-up in the demand for magnetic materials is expected to bring the central high price of major light and rare earth varieties. Lithium cobalt continued to rise. Last week, the price of lithium in small metals increased by 8.27% to 275000 yuan / ton, and molybdenum, cobalt and tungsten increased by 1.31%, 1.02% and 1.36%..
Risk tip: risk of changes in interest rate negotiation policies of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve; The global economy is less than expected, the price of bulk commodities falls sharply, the demand for new energy is less than expected, and the supply of lithium and cobalt is significantly higher than expected
