Main points:
Event:
The National Bureau of statistics released the social zero data from January to February 2022.
Low base combined with Spring Festival boost, catering consumption picked up significantly from January to February
Due to the normalization of epidemic prevention and control this year, the number of floating people in the Spring Festival has increased significantly compared with last year. According to the data of the Ministry of transport, during the 40 day spring festival transportation this year, a total of 1.06 billion passengers were sent across the country, with an average of 26.5 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. Boosted by the Spring Festival consumption, from January to February 2022, the cumulative value of social zero was 7442.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. By region, the growth rate in rural areas is slightly higher than that in urban areas. From January to February 2022, the retail sales of urban consumer goods reached 6459.3 billion yuan (YoY + 6.7%), and that of rural consumer goods reached 983.3 billion yuan (YoY + 7.1%). By consumption type, due to the increase of Spring Festival dinner, the catering revenue increased rapidly from January to February 2022. From January to February in 2022, retail sales of goods reached 6670.8 billion yuan (YoY + 6.5%), and catering revenue reached 771.8 billion yuan (YoY + 8.9%).
The growth trend of online sales continued, and some optional consumption increased significantly
The rapid development of social media platforms such as live e-commerce and buffeting, as well as repeated epidemics, have accelerated the offline to online transformation of the retail industry. From January to February 2022, online retail sales reached 1955.8 billion yuan (YoY + 10.2%), continuing the growth trend. The online retail sales of physical goods reached 163711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, accounting for 22.0% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods. From January to February, the offline retail sales were 5486.8 billion yuan (YoY + 5.2%), which was still weak. In terms of consumption types, the basic consumption such as tobacco, alcohol and clothing, which consume more during the Spring Festival, has increased. From January to February, tobacco and alcohol increased by 13.6% year-on-year, and clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with growth rates of 6.6pct and 7.1pct respectively compared with December 2021. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the impact of the epidemic weakened, superimposed on the impact of travel and gift giving, and some optional consumption increased significantly. Gold, silver and jewelry increased by 19.5% year-on-year, household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 12.7% year-on-year, and automobiles increased by 3.9% year-on-year. The growth rate increased by 19.7pct, 18.7pct and 11.3pct respectively compared with December 2021. Cosmetics increased by 7.0% year-on-year from January to February, an increase of 4.5pct compared with December 2021.
Investment advice
(1) cosmetics industry: from January to February, the growth rate of social zero exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of cosmetics was stronger than that of social zero. According to Amoy data, the growth rate of Amoy skin care and makeup Gmv in February was 30% and – 10% respectively, which was significantly higher than that in January, and the industry generally warmed up. Attention: Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) , Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) , etc.
(2) medical and beauty industry: the supervision continues to be stricter, which is expected to speed up the standardization process of the industry. The competitive advantages of head medical beauty products supply enterprises with complete certificates and medical beauty institutions with long-term standardized operation are more prominent. Attention: Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) , Sihuan medicine, Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) , Ruili Yimei, etc.
Risk tips
The impact of repeated outbreaks; Industry competition intensifies; Macroeconomic fluctuations, etc
