Industry Overview: the overseas market shipping sector performed well
From the performance of each sub sector of transportation relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the overall recovery of transportation sector is obvious this week (March 7-march 11). This week, the shipping and port sectors fell by 7.60% and 5.39% respectively, with some correction; The overseas market shipping sector performed well.
Shipping: the US line maintains the trend of peak season, and the freight rate of northwest Europe flows back slightly
The freight rate of the US line remains stable, and the freight rate of the northwest European market of the European line is slightly corrected, which is expected to last until the middle and late March. After March 1, the US line carriers mainly extended the freight rate, and the price remained stable. In the first ten days of March, the high freight rate in the northwest European market was slightly corrected, and the freight rate flowing from the Mediterranean remained stable. The main reason is that some shipping companies focus on the arrival of ships on northwest European routes and the upgrading of route capacity leads to a significant increase in short-term capacity supply, while the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated epidemic in South China lead to the slowdown of cargo volume after the Spring Festival. The supply of northwest European routes exceeds demand in the short term and is expected to last until mid to late March; The supply-demand relationship of Mediterranean routes is relatively stable, and there is no significant change in freight rate level.
The recent epidemic situation in South China has affected the shipment rhythm, and the overall loading level of the US line has remained strong. The recent epidemic situation in South China has affected the efficiency of logistics turnover to a certain extent, and the customs clearance rate of local customers has increased, but the shipment demand of customers in Southeast Asia and other regions remains strong, and the overall loading level remains strong. On March 11, the number of waiting ships outside Changluo port decreased and stabilized near 50. The congestion in Meiwan and Meidong continued to increase. Last week, the average waiting time in the west of the United States was 17.16 days and that in the east of the United States was 8.69 days. There was no significant change in container capacity and liquidity in the west American terminal, and the proportion of imported heavy containers staying for more than 9 days increased to 23%. NRF urged ilwu and PMA in West America to start negotiations as soon as possible to avoid the risk of increasing port congestion.
In the past three months, the prices of the US West and US East long-term association have increased by 125% and 160% respectively year-on-year. The final price of the US Line long-term association may exceed expectations and needs to be reconfirmed at the end of March. According to xeneta data, during the period from December to February, the average long-term price from Asia to the west coast of the United States was US $6548 / feu, with a year-on-year increase of 125% and 350% year-on-year in 2019, while the average long-term price from Asia to the east coast of the United States was US $10100 / feu, with a year-on-year increase of 160% and 300% year-on-year in 2019, higher than our previous overall average of US $5500 / feu. The final price of the US long-term association needs to be reconfirmed at the end of March.
Centralized transportation: continue to maintain the “buy” ratings of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , OOCL international and Haifeng International. It is recommended to pay attention to Zim and Mason.
Dry bulk freight: it is suggested to pay attention to The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) shipping, starbulk and golden ocean group.
Oil transportation: it is suggested to pay attention to China Merchants Energy Shipping Co.Ltd(601872) , Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) , TEEKAY and TEEKAY
Tanke, frontline shipping, EURONAV, Nordic American tanker.
LNG transportation: it is suggested to pay attention to GOLAR shipping and flexlng.
LPG transportation: it is recommended to pay attention to Dorian LPG.
