Industry perspective
I. social retail: consumption picked up during the Spring Festival, with a high growth rate of tobacco, alcohol, gold and jewelry
From January to February 2022, the recovery of social retail sales was better than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 6.72% (the previous value was 1.8%). Tobacco, alcohol, gold, jewelry and other industries performed well in the peak season of the Spring Festival, and the growth rate of household appliances improved significantly. From January to February, the year-on-year growth rate of tobacco and alcohol was 13.6%, and the growth rate of gold, silver and jewelry was 19.5%. Combined with the business data announcement from January to February disclosed by some listed companies, the median revenue growth rate of liquor companies is 23%, the median net profit growth rate is 50%, the median revenue growth rate of gold and jewelry is 118%, and the median net profit growth rate is 37%.
The growth rate of online retail rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.2% (the previous value was – 0.75%), mainly due to the non closing of e-commerce during the Spring Festival and the promotion of new year goods Festival. The growth rate of GMV on the electronic business platform has improved compared with that of December last year. The growth rate of Tmall, Jingdong, tiktok and GMV is -4.5%/28.4%/40.6%/143.2% respectively. From January to February, the revenue of express business increased by 14% year-on-year (the growth rate of December 21 was – 1%), and the volume of express business increased by 20% year-on-year (the growth rate of December 21 was 11%).
II. Online consumption: the growth rate of e-commerce has picked up, and sports, furniture and home decoration are booming
The core highlights of online consumption from January to February: ① the popularity of outdoor sports remained high, with a year-on-year increase of 36%. Indoor sports made a high contribution, of which sports / Yoga / Fitness / ball games increased by 39%. Domestic sports brands performed well, and the heat continued during the 3.8 promotion period. Pinduoduo’s growth rate and customer orders increased, the customer unit price increased by 30% year-on-year, and the category subsidy increased by 20% year-on-year. ② Furniture, home decoration and household daily necessities continued to grow, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31% / 29%. Xiaohongshu has gradually become an important grass planting platform for important household products. “Content platform grass planting + e-commerce platform theme activity” is a warm-up for furniture and home decoration consumption in March. The epidemic prevention and control has intensified, and uncertainty still exists, or it may affect the decoration commencement progress and procurement and consumption behavior. ③ The live broadcast of the new year’s goods Festival has significantly improved the chain comparison of textile and clothing, with a growth rate of 17% from January to February.
III. e-commerce platform: online consumption is picking up, focusing on the promotion and epidemic situation
Promotion and catalysis: 3.8 during the festival promotion, cosmetics, sportswear and gold jewelry are the main categories of the promotion, among which cosmetics are more powerful, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) perform beautifully.
Epidemic catalysis: since March, the epidemic has occurred repeatedly in many places. The change of consumption situation, consumption behavior and scene at the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020 may be of reference significance. With the maturity of prevention and control means and more accurate epidemic prevention, the change of prosperity of the consumer sector will accelerate and the cycle will be shortened: ① from the perspective of channel change, online channels will first become the main consumer market, Increased permeability. Supermarkets with good online ability, fresh e-commerce and platforms with strong real-time distribution ability will be more resilient. ② From the perspective of the rotation of category prosperity, the mandatory category first showed a high prosperity. The beneficiary categories related to the epidemic, such as cleaning products, small household appliances, cleaning appliances and convenient fast food, had strong demand in the early stage of epidemic prevention, focusing on the “home” scene. Cosmetics are the first category to recover in optional consumption, and skin care precedes beauty makeup. In the post epidemic period, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and the gradual recovery of travel, the prosperity of textile and clothing categories will recover. After the real estate cycle, the demand for categories and wedding celebrations is gradually released. ③ In terms of category online penetration, the online penetration level of optional and durable is higher than that of mandatory. Under the catalysis of home scenario, the online penetration of mandatory categories is expected to increase. Considering the improvement of the accuracy of epidemic prevention and control, and the recovery of offline consumption scenes may be faster than the epidemic stage after 2020, the sustainability of the cultivation of online consumption habits and penetration improvement of mandatory categories remains to be seen.
Risk tips
The terminal demand is weak, and the consumption recovery is less than expected; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies; Risk of deviation between the statistical results and the actual situation, etc.
