Core view
Market review this week. In the 10th week, the real estate sector index was weaker than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was – 1.3. The CSI 300 index closed at 430652, with a weekly increase of – 4.2%; The gem index closed at 266546, with a weekly increase of – 3.0%; The real estate sector index closed at 318214, with a weekly increase of – 5.5%.
Industry highlights this week. The budget allocation of Guangzhou housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau in 2022 is 2.62 billion, and the housing security department accounts for 1.03 billion. The government work report pointed out that we should strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy and expand the scale of new loans. According to the social finance data released by the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank, RMB loans increased by 19.8 billion yuan and household loans increased by 20.9 billion yuan in January. Dongguan will implement “double centralized” land supply. The National Bureau of statistics released the national CPI and PPI data in February 2022. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development requires that the scientific and technological innovation capacity in the field of housing and urban rural construction be greatly improved by 2025.
Sales of new houses this week decreased compared with last week, while sales of second-hand houses increased compared with last week. In the 10th week, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities was 24000, a decrease of 14.3% compared with the 9th week; The sales of second-hand houses in 11 major cities were 9000 units, an increase of 5.4% over the ninth week; Compared with the ninth week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were – 17.7% and 6.5% respectively; Compared with the eighth week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were – 9.6% and 4.7% respectively. The inventory of 15 major cities and first tier cities increased compared with last week, the inventory of second tier cities decreased compared with last week, and the inventory and sales increased compared with last week. As of the 10th week, the inventory in 15 major cities was 1222000 sets, an increase of 15000 sets compared with the 9th week; The stock to sales ratio was 15.7 months, an increase of 0.7 months over the ninth week. The land market transfer heat this week is lower than last week. In week 10, a total of 1 piece of land was sold in 26 major cities. The amount of land transfer decreased. In the 10th week, the land transfer fee in 26 major cities was 220 million yuan, a decrease of 5.33 billion yuan compared with the 9th week. The average premium rate decreased. In the 10th week, the average premium rate of land transactions in 26 major cities was 0.0%, 6.1 percentage points lower than that in the 9th week. In the 10th week, the number of land auction in 26 big cities was 0.
Announcement of key companies China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) subsidiary provides guarantee for China Merchants and Anye Yang Guang Co.Ltd(000608) shareholder Shanghai yongpan industry reduced its shares in the company by means of centralized bidding In Gemdale Corporation(600383) 2 months, the contracted area was 469000 square meters Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) the executive vice president of the company resigned as vice president.
Investment proposal and investment object
The confidence of home buyers continued to decline in February, highlighting the weakness of home builders. We believe that after the two sessions, the policies may show an average force at both ends: the supply side promotes the clearing of the industry, the state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises take over the projects, and some cities with little pressure on the rise of house prices at the demand side can further relax regulation. Based on this framework and the fact that the fundamental recovery is not as expected, looking for marginal real estate enterprises is not a good strategy. Driven by policy expectations, we are still optimistic about the performance of real estate stocks in the future. We recommend the combination of state-owned enterprises and high credit private enterprises, Poly Real Estate ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , buy), China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ( China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) ( Gemdale Corporation(600383) , buy), Longhu group (00960, buy), Xuhui holding group (00884, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industries with rapid growth and strong consumption attributes. We recommend Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ( China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , overweight), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ( New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng Commerce (06668, buy).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly.
