In February, the sales volume of electric vehicles greatly exceeded the market expectation, and the off-season was not light. In March, the production output continued to rise month on month, and the boom continued. According to the CAAC, the sales volume of electric vehicles in China in February was 334000, with the same ring + 184% / - 23%, which exceeded the market expectation. We expect Q1 to exceed 1.2 million, laying a high increase for the whole year. In March, the price of some Tesla models increased by 10000 yuan again, but the price sensitivity of high-end models was low. Since February, the orders of automobile enterprises have been restored step by step. We maintain the sales volume expectation of 6 million vehicles (including exports) in China in 2022, with an increase of 70% +. In February, 70000 electric vehicles were sold in the United States, with a month on month ratio of + 78% / + 11%, which is in line with market expectations. We expect the sales volume to double by 1.3 million in 2022. In February, the mainstream countries in Europe sold 128000 vehicles in total, with a month on month ratio of + 33% / + 7%, the overall penetration rate of 20.6%, and a month on month ratio of + 5.6 / + 1.3pct. We expect that the sales volume in Europe in 2022 will be 2.7 million vehicles +, an increase of 30% +. The global sales volume of electric vehicles is expected to reach 10 million + in 2022, an increase of 64% at the same time, and there is room for further repair. From the perspective of production scheduling, the month on month growth in March was 15% - 30%, and some increased by more than 50%, and the high scenery continued.
The price rise in the upstream has slowed down, the industrial production scheduling has continued to improve, and the high outlook has continued. In March, the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 500000 yuan / ton, and the recent price increase has slowed down. The output of the industry is still 5-10% higher than that in January, and the high outlook of the terminal continues. We expect that from March to April, with the release of new capacity of lithium carbonate, the price fluctuates at a high level, and the downstream demand is still sustainable. The overall Q1 is expected to be flat in Q4, not light in the off-season, and the shipment guidance of core companies will double in 22 years. From the perspective of industrial chain, lithium carbonate, diaphragm, copper foil and graphitization will be tight in 2022, and lithium carbonate and graphitization will be the bottleneck of the industry in the short term, and Q2 will be alleviated. In terms of batteries, Q1 battery price negotiations have basically been implemented. China's mainstream car enterprises have raised the price by 5-10%, covering the rise in raw material costs. At the same time, the price of batteries has increased by 10%, and the single vehicle cost has increased by about 4000 yuan. Car enterprises can basically bear it. At present, the price increase of lithium carbonate is higher than expected, the industrial chain has not started the second price negotiation, and the short-term cost pressure is borne by the battery enterprises, We expect that the profit pressure of 1H22 battery enterprises is large, while after 2h22, the shortage of supply of some raw materials will be relieved, the cost side is expected to decline, and the profit of battery enterprises is expected to improve.
Investment suggestion: Q1, the core company of electric vehicles, has a brilliant performance, and the valuation has dropped to the bottom. The 22-year high outlook continues, and the leader is expected to increase by 80-100%. We continue to look at the leader of electric vehicles in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery link repaired by profit in 22 years, with a good long-term pattern, superimposed energy storage holdings, the leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , the second main line: battery technology upgrading, high nickel ternary ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , attention Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), lithium ferromanganese ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) )), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third article is the leading of the continuous shortage: the diaphragm ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 812 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ); Article 4: lithium is in short supply and the price is higher than expected. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , etc.
Risk tip: price competition exceeds market expectations, raw material prices are unstable, affecting profit margins, declining investment growth and the impact of the epidemic.
