The National Bureau of statistics released the retail sales data of social consumer goods from January to February 2022. From January to February, the total amount of social retail sales increased by 6.7% year-on-year, including the year-on-year growth of catering revenue, and the retail sales of tobacco, alcohol and beverages achieved double-digit growth.
From January to February 2022, the total social retail sales increased by + 6.7% year-on-year, the year-on-year growth rate of catering revenue returned to positive, the retail sales of tobacco, alcohol and beverages increased by double digits, and the retail sales growth rate of grain, oil and food decreased. (1) Total social zero: from January to February, the total social zero was + 6.7% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 27.1pct year-on-year and + 5.0pct month on month; After deducting price factors, the actual total social zero from January to February was + 4.9% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of -29.4pct and a month on month growth rate of + 5.4pct. (2) Catering consumption: Catering revenue was + 8.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 60.0pct year-on-year and + 11.1pct month on month; The catering revenue of Enterprises above designated size was + 10.1% year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of -51.7pct and a month on month growth rate of + 10.2pct. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of catering revenue from January to February returned to positive, which is related to the directional issuance of consumption vouchers in many places, the rapid development of catering takeout and other factors. (3) Food and beverage consumption: the retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by + 13.6% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 30.3pct year-on-year and + 6.6pct month on month. The growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased month on month from January to February. We judge that it is related to the relaxation of return policy. Retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by + 7.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate of – 3.0pct year-on-year and – 3.4pct month on month; Retail sales of beverages increased by + 11.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate of -25.5pct year-on-year and -1.2pct month on month.
Compared with the same period in 2019, catering consumption gradually returned to normal, the retail sales of tobacco, alcohol, grain, oil and food increased steadily, and the retail sales of beverages increased faster. Compared with January February 2019, the three-year compound growth rate of catering retail sales from January to February 2022 was 2.1%. With the effective control of the epidemic in China and the continuous improvement of the catering industry, catering revenue has recovered to a level higher than that before the epidemic. The three-year compound growth rate of retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 9.5%, which was significantly better than the catering data. We judged that the increased demand for gifts and the upgrading of product structure offset the impact of some epidemics. The three-year compound growth rate of retail sales of grain, oil and food was 6.8%. Grain, oil and food are compulsory consumption with strong consumption rigidity and less affected by the epidemic. The three-year compound growth rate of beverage retail sales was 14.0%, and the consumption scale increased rapidly.
The latest ideas: 1, Baijiu, the growth of performance is high certainty, the spread of the epidemic led to callbacks, but ushered in the layout of the time. (1) combined with the zero data of catering, tobacco and alcohol industry and the data of listed companies that have been released for 1-2 months, the 1 quarterly report of Baijiu liquor is worth looking forward to. Recently, affected by the spread of the epidemic and negative feedback from the channel, Baijiu has been deeply callback, but has welcomed the layout. (2) looking forward to 2022, we think that Baijiu is still the best sub industry with certainty. Because of the change of income structure, ratcheting effect and concentration degree, Baijiu consumption shows strong toughness, especially the high-end liquor. (3) Baijiu focuses on deterministic growth and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . 2. Food, the darkest hour has passed. In 2022, dairy industry, leisure, quick freezing and soft drinks will have the opportunity to choose the layout. (1) High end white milk and low-temperature white milk are favored by consumers due to their nutritional health. The change of consumption habits will promote these categories to maintain high growth. In the short term, there are many leading opportunities for dairy products, the competition pattern continues to improve, and the performance release power is strong. (2) Quick frozen food, pay attention to the growth opportunities of subdivided tracks, such as Guangzhou style quick frozen food. (3) Snack food, companies will continue to improve in 2022. (4) .
Risk warning. The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the price fluctuation of raw materials and food safety problems.
