Power investment energy (002128)
Renamed “power investment energy” and actively transformed into a new wind power. The company is the leader of Mengdong lignite and the only coal asset listing platform of SDIC. At present, it has included coal, electricity, aluminum, new energy and other industries. In order to fully reflect the company’s development objectives, meet the needs of industrial structure adjustment and match the current business scope of the company, the securities abbreviation of the company was changed from ” Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) ” to “power investment energy” in November 2021. In the future, the company will build Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited Of Inner Mongolia(002128) into a comprehensive energy enterprise with core competitiveness with coal as the core, aluminum, electricity and new energy as the focus and capital operation as the platform.
Coal: its leading position is created by the unique resource advantage + the market environment of short supply. Spot: it is estimated that the spot price of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal in 2022 will show a trend of first suppression and then Yangge (bottom in the first half of the year), and the price center is about 800 yuan / ton, still maintaining a high level. Long term association: the benchmark price of the long term association has been significantly increased to 700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the center of the long term association will rise to about 750 yuan / ton in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of about 100 yuan / ton, and the certainty of the center of the long term association will be improved; Moreover, the long-term association proposed a reasonable range of “550 ~ 850 yuan / ton” for the first time, allowing the price to fluctuate widely, dispelling the market’s concern about the return of coal to “planned coal”, making the overall profit of the industry more stable and conducive to the overall improvement of Industry Valuation. The company is the leader of lignite in eastern Mongolia and Northeast China. It sits on two high-efficiency open-pit mines with excellent resource endowment. The cost per ton of coal is superior to the others and builds a natural moat. The company has regional barriers. Under the background of intensified contradiction between supply and demand in Jilin and Liaoning, the company has benefited significantly.
Electrolytic aluminum: aluminum electric joint venture, with significant synergistic effect. Looking forward to 2022, the electrolytic output shows a slow recovery trend, but the overall increment is limited under the dual control of energy consumption. The demand is expected to recover under the promotion of the residual temperature in the real estate completion cycle, the gradual recovery of automobile production and sales and the continuous growth of photovoltaic installed capacity. Overall, the supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum is in tight balance, and the selling price is expected to remain high. Huo meihongjun has an electrolytic aluminum production line with an annual capacity of 860000 tons, its own power plant, its own thermal power unit with an installed capacity of 1.8 million KW and 400000 kW wind power unit, which can basically meet the power demand; Among them, the coal for thermal power is sold internally by the company, and the company is located close to the main coal producing area, enjoys stable and low-cost coal resources, and can give full play to its advantages and synergy.
Electric power: vigorously develop new wind and electricity, and the transformation of new energy is ready. In terms of thermal power, the company has obvious coal power synergy advantages and solid guarantee for consumption; In terms of new energy, as of September 2021, the company has an installed capacity of 720mw photovoltaic and 649.5mw wind power, with a total installed capacity of 1369.5mw. In addition, the company still has 1575.3mw photovoltaic, 2165.5mw wind power and 4366.8mw scenery projects under construction and planning, with a total installed capacity of 4366.8mw under construction and planning, an increase of 218.9%, and great growth potential. After the new production capacity is put into operation, the proportion of new energy installed capacity of the company will continue to increase, the power installed structure will continue to be optimized, promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises, improve the core competitiveness of enterprises, and lay a solid foundation for the long-term development of the company.
Investment advice We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.121 billion yuan, 4.535 billion yuan and 5.087 billion yuan respectively, and EPS will be 2.14 yuan, 2.36 yuan and 2.65 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 7.9, 7.2 and 6.4. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the project under construction was put into operation less than expected, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum consumption was less than expected, and the coal price fell sharply.
