Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) (600256)
LNG, coal and coal chemical industry are in high prosperity, and the business growth can be expected. Maintain “buy” rating
The company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.9-5.05 billion yuan in the whole year, an increase of 3.564-3.714 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 267% – 278%, the best performance since listing. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 will reach 2.14-2.29 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 1.512-1.662 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 241% – 265% and a month-on-month increase of 58% – 69% compared with Q3, which will once again set a new high in single quarter performance. Considering the booming production and sales of the company’s products and high prices, we raised our profit forecast. From 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 5.001/62.75/79.75 (the previous value was 4.53/57.8/73.6) billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of 274.3% / 25.5% / 27.1%; EPS was 0.76/0.96/1.21 (the former value was 0.69/0.88/1.12) yuan; Based on the closing price on January 5, the corresponding PE is 9.0 times / 7.2 times / 5.7 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The production and sales of all sectors are booming, and the volume and price rise together. The performance of Q4 in a single quarter and the whole year is the best in history
Driven by the mismatch between supply and demand, cost support and the regulation of policies related to “double control” and “double carbon” of energy consumption, the supply and demand gap of energy consumption products continues to increase, and the prices of natural gas, coal, methanol and other products related to the company’s main business products have reached a phased historical high in China. Under this background, the company’s products in all sectors have achieved prosperity in production and marketing, contributing more than expected performance to the company. Natural gas sector: the company’s annual LNG sales are stable, with an expected year-on-year increase of 22%, and the average sales price of LNG market has increased significantly by 56% year-on-year. Among them, Qidong trading gas performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 25%. The key to the profit of trading gas is to reduce the procurement cost. By signing the large long-term association (10 years) + small long-term association (2-3 years), the company locked in the natural gas far lower than the international market price and thickened the profit. Coal sector: the company expects that the market sales price of each sub type of coal in the whole year will vary from + 60% to 100% year-on-year, and the total coal sales in 2021 will nearly double, with a year-on-year increase of + 91%. According to this calculation, Q4 will achieve a coal sales volume of 5.8863 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 99.23%, which is the main engine for Q4’s single quarter performance. Coal chemical industry: the company expects that the annual sales of methanol products and coal based oil products will play a stable role, with a year-on-year increase of + 9% and + 13%. The overall price shows an upward trend, and the market sales price of methanol and coal based oil products will increase by 72% and 59% year-on-year.
In response to the “double carbon” policy, begin to layout CCUs and oil displacement projects
The company established a wholly-owned subsidiary Guanghui Carbon Technology Co., Ltd. on May 20, 2021, and planned to invest in the construction of 3 million T / a carbon dioxide capture (CCUs), pipeline transportation and oil displacement integration project. The project has two advantages: (1) the carbon emissions of the company’s business are relatively concentrated, easy to capture and low cost. While reducing its own carbon emissions, it can conduct carbon trading to obtain a certain degree of subsidies. (2) As a product, it is sold to oil enterprises to form a new profit point. There is a shortage of water in Xinjiang, and the use of water drive oil recovery in oilfield exploitation is seriously limited. Through carbon dioxide oil displacement, we can develop our strengths and avoid our weaknesses, and also improve the production efficiency. At present, the project has entered the substantive implementation stage. In the first phase, a 100000 t / a carbon dioxide capture and utilization demonstration project will be built to produce liquid carbon dioxide products.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Coal prices fell; The progress of new capacity lags behind expectations
