Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
Conclusions and recommendations:
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 930-1.15 billion in 2021, yoy + 29-60%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 800-1.04 billion, yoy + 40-83%; Among them, Q4 is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 220-440 million, yoy + 17-135%, qoq-21 - + 59%, deduct the non net profit of RMB 210-450 million, yoy + 64-258%, qoq-7 - + 102%, and the performance is in line with the expectation.
The trend of "sugar control" is becoming more and more intense, and the development speed of sugar substitute industry is accelerating. As the leader of global sweetener industry, the company has the world's largest production capacity of Acer honey and sucralose, strong pricing ability and complete industrial chain. It is expected to accelerate its growth in the future and maintain the "buy" rating.
The company's performance continued to grow with the simultaneous rise of sweet dose and price: the company's performance growth mainly benefited from the simultaneous rise of the volume and price of its main products. Since August 21, the price of sweetener has risen sharply. The average price of sucralose, the main product of Q4 company, has reached 443700 yuan / ton, yoy + 111%, and the average price of Acer honey has reached 93400 yuan / ton, yoy + 56%. At the same time, the 5000 ton sucralose project of the company was completed in the first half of the year, and the production capacity continued to be released in the second half of the year, consolidating the company's industry position in the sweetener field. Under the situation of double increase in volume and price in 2021, the company's performance continued to grow.
Global leader in sugar substitutes, with obvious integration advantages: under the general trend of global sugar reduction and low saccharification, the company, as the world's leading R & D, production and sales enterprise of Acer honey and sucralose sweetener products, has laid the foundation for the company's industry position based on the continuous optimization of product cost and the continuous release of production capacity. At present, the company has a production capacity of 12000 tons of Acer honey and 8000 tons of sucralose. The production capacity of both products is the first in the world, with obvious leading advantages. In addition, the company has built a circular economy industrial park in Dingyuan. Phase I 2018 includes 20000 tons of furfural, 5000 tons of methyl ethyl maltol and 80000 tons of thionyl chloride. At present, it has been completed and gradually released production capacity., In phase II, there is also an integrated production capacity of 30000 tons of Acer honey raw material diethylene ketone, 30000 tons of potassium sorbate and cassava raw material ethanol 20000 tons of crotonaldehyde. After completion, the integration advantage of the company will be further expanded and the leading position will be more stable.
The market prospect of sugar substitutes is broad, and the development of the company is optimistic for a long time: with the improvement of consumers' living standards, the concept of healthy diet is more and more popular. The popularity of low sugar concept and the implementation of sugar reduction policy will bring broad growth space to the sugar substitute market. Artificial sweeteners can bring sweetness without heat. At present, they are widely used in food and beverage, personal care, pharmaceutical manufacturing and other industries. At present, the global sweetener market has reached US $40 billion, sucrose, fructose and glucose account for 90%, and synthetic sweeteners account for only 9%. In the future, sugar substitutes are expected to accelerate the replacement and further improve the market share of the industry.
Profit forecast: we maintain the profit expectation. It is expected that the company will achieve a net profit of 11.1/12.8/1.5 billion yuan, yoy + 54% / + 16% / + 18%, equivalent to EPS of 1.97/2.28/2.68 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 24 / 21 / 18 times. In view of the high prosperity of the company's main products, guaranteed performance and large growth space in the future, the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk tips: 1. The company's product price is lower than expected; 2. The release of new capacity is less than expected;
