\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 148 Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) )
Key investment points
Global leader of NCA precursor: the company is the global leader of NCA precursor. In 2015, the company developed NCA ternary precursor and supplied NCA precursor in bulk to Panasonic Tesla industrial chain in 2017. In 2018, the export volume of NCA ternary precursor reached the first in China, and Panasonic accounted for 63% of the company’s revenue in 2020. It is expected to benefit from the continued strong demand of Tesla and worry free short-term orders.
Relying on the technical advantages of NCA, cut into the NCM precursor and open the growth ceiling: the technical difficulty of NCA precursor is higher than that of NCM, and the coprecipitation of aluminum and nickel cobalt is more difficult, which requires precise regulation of pH and other processes. Through years of technology accumulation, the company has solved key problems such as NCA homogeneous coprecipitation, primary particle morphology regulation and particle size distribution regulation. At the same time, based on the universality of NCA and NCM process equipment, the company has rapidly expanded NCM customers. NCM orders such as beiteri and Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) have been in large quantities. In 2022 and 2023, the production capacity of precursors is planned to reach 60000 tons and 110000 tons respectively, and the corresponding shipments are expected to grow rapidly.
The layout of recycling business helps the integration and improves the cost competitiveness and profit elasticity: through the self-developed “impurity extraction without nickel extraction” hydrometallurgy technology, the company can extract high-purity nickel sulfate and other products from crude resources including waste batteries and nickel containing waste. Through the establishment of a joint venture with Veolia, a leader in resource recovery, the dismantling capacity of 20000 tons of waste ternary lithium power batteries is arranged; At the same time, the company actively plans lithium resource recovery. In 2023, the planned lithium hydroxide capacity of the subsidiary aromatic source cycle and aromatic source lithium energy is expected to reach 16000 tons. Under the background of high prices of upstream resource products, the recycling business is expected to contribute significant profit elasticity to the company.
Profit forecast: considering the equity incentive expenses, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years will be RMB 0.7, 220 and 640 million, corresponding to pe164, 52 and 18 times.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the capacity release of nickel project is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
