Looking back on the first trading day in 2022, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, the stock index fluctuated lower at the beginning of the trading, and accelerated the diving and turning green; In the afternoon, the decline of the Shanghai index narrowed and almost turned red in the session. Unfortunately, the gem index is still relatively fierce. On the whole, the performance of A-Shares is relatively weak.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the A-Shares failed to make a good start on the first day after the festival, but the money making effect on the market is still on the rise. More than 3300 stocks in the two markets rose. It should be said that the money making effect did not decrease but increased. From the perspective of disk style, value stocks, whether large or small, crushed growth stocks, which may be a correction of the market style of the past year. For individual investors, before the current market is clear, You might as well see more and move less. for the market, especially some high-level varieties, we still need to keep a vigilance . In operation, it is recommended to control positions and moderately increase the allocation of low-level blue chips to achieve balanced positions. In the direction, we can focus on difficult reversal industries, big finance and new and old infrastructure, and chase up the rise carefully.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities believes that the market has a concussion at the beginning of 2022, and the concept sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, yuancosmos and agriculture are active, while the performance of new energy vehicles and innovative drugs in the high boom track is relatively low, the market sectors are obviously divided, and the trading between the two cities remains active. The central bank returned 260 billion yuan in the open market on Tuesday, but the capital interest rate is low, It shows that the capital side is still relatively abundant, it is expected that the market is expected to strengthen in repeated shocks, and pay attention to the change of volume energy and plate rotation . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, building materials, TMT and other industries.
As for the future, Guosheng Securities said that the indexes of the two cities may maintain the range shock structure in the short term. In the future, we need to wait for the mainstream hot spots in the market to boost the market's long confidence. At the same time, institutions such as lithium battery and photovoltaic will stop falling and stabilize, so as to get out of the red envelope market before the year. In terms of operation, although the indexes of the two cities maintain a range shock, the gem is in a position breaking downward state, and the great Yin line on Tuesday may continue to move the focus downward, which will have a certain impact on the market's long confidence. At the same time, the market style has changed significantly, in the short term, we should pay attention to the rhythm of participation, avoid fund selling plates and follow the market to long low-level plates, Focus on real estate, household products, artificial intelligence and other sectors .
However, Anxin securities mentioned that it firmly believes that should not be pessimistic at present, and patience is needed in the bottom grinding stage. At present, the market is optimistic about the structural market, and the index should be more optimistic after the Spring Festival . In terms of style, we believe that the trend of steady growth for quite a long time to come is clear. In the game of fundamental expectations under the steady growth policy, the market will eventually stand on the side of the policy. We predict that the GDP growth rate next year will pick up compared with the second half of this year, and the "economic bottom" may occur in the second quarter of next year, This determines that the mid-term swing back probability of the CSI 300 index is large, and the style will be further balanced.
The agency also said that for the evaluation of the industrial track, the overall trend of the high boom and high valuation track industry is optimistic in the medium term, but the short-term volatility will be significantly enhanced, maintaining the view of exchanging time for space. At the same time, we firmly believe that "intelligence" is the preferred industrial track direction of A-Shares in 2022 , and take the lead in proposing the layout of "one body and two wings" of intelligent industrial track, with intelligent automobile industry chain as the main body, intelligent manufacturing equipment (military industry chain, AR / VR, intelligent numerical control, industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) ) and digital economy (network security, digital twin (including meta universe) Industrial Internet) has two wings. At the same time, driven by the expectation of steady growth, priority is given to focusing on the long logic track, and the green power industry chain with power as the core is still the top priority.
Overall, Anxin securities further concluded that the current market needs to wait for key signals such as clear policy expectations, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment. The signal of breaking the situation lies in the implementation of credit extension and domestic demand expansion policies at the beginning of the year and the promotion of covid-19 drugs and strengthening needles. Under the background of consistent expectations for steady growth and relatively loose liquidity, the follow-up needs to focus on the "good start" of the issuance of new funds, "setting up the stage for value and singing the opera for growth". This round of spring agitation is still worth looking forward to .
In the macro aspect, YueKai Securities pointed out that the first half of 2022 is the best time window for monetary policy easing. It is expected that in the future, there is still room for further easing of future policy under the background of the advance of the importance of cross cycle adjustment and stable growth of the economy, the "I-oriented" monetary policy is highlighted again .
In addition, PMI in December increased by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry continued to rise. Among them, the high-tech manufacturing industry has maintained rapid growth. At present, China's economy has generally maintained a recovery trend. With the strengthening of a series of stable economic development policies such as ensuring supply and stabilizing prices and helping enterprises to rescue, the prices of some bulk commodities have fallen, and the cost pressure of middle and lower reaches enterprises has been relieved. It is suggested that the focus of investment should gradually shift to middle and lower reaches, focus on hard technology industries such as high-tech manufacturing .
In terms of operation strategy, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that growth is dominant in the environment of "weak economy + wide currency", and the growth segments with good cost performance and clear industrial cycle are preferred, taking into account the consumption sector under the logic of price increase. Specifically, 1) considering the cost performance and the performance growth of the growth sector, there is room for improvement in the automotive, computer, media and military industries, with a high safety margin.
2) From the perspective of the rotation of the science and technology industry cycle, the breakthrough and development in the software field may become the main driving force for the valuation expansion in the expected capital market. In this round of science and technology cycle with consumer products such as automobiles and VR glasses as the carrier, the emergence of Killer Software and applications is still waiting to further catalyze the significant growth of sales. We should pay attention to media, software development It services, optical images and other scenery continue to subdivide the track .
3) the value sector which oversold in the early stage and had deterministic performance advantages mainly focused on consumption styles. Among them, the year-on-year prediction of the performance of the food, beverage and household appliance industry in 2022 showed significant improvement, with valuation and repair momentum and allocation value. In January, the preferred industries are electronics, media, national defense and military industry.
In addition, Caixin securities mentioned that looking forward to the first quarter of 2022, under the background of "stable currency + structural wide credit", continuous promotion of antitrust and crowded mainstream track transactions, the market will continue to favor small and medium-sized market capitalization companies and marginal track stocks. It is expected that the A-share market will still achieve positive returns in 2022, but the performance of the index may be lower than that in 2021. We are optimistic about the following four sectors in turn: (1) the sector with booming production and sales . In the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer.
(2) new energy and other track stocks . It is expected that the differentiation of new energy track stocks will intensify, the stocks with confirmed performance will still have high growth, and the stocks with false performance will be corrected.
(3) downstream consumption sector . In November, China's PPI rose 12.9% year-on-year, CPI rose 2.3% year-on-year, and the scissors gap was at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of next year. We can pay attention to the food, beverage and household appliance industries.
(4) epidemic damaged plate . At present, the epidemic has spread to India, Africa and other places with the weakest vaccination, which may mean that the global anti epidemic process has come to an end. In 2022, with the global epidemic situation under control, there is a momentum for valuation and repair in the epidemic damaged plate, which can be paid attention to: aviation, airport, tourism, hotel, cinema, etc.
