\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 033 Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) )
Stabilize the business position of brake pads and break through the field of carbon composite materials Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) is a leading supplier of powder metallurgy brake pads for high-speed railway EMUs in China. In recent years, relying on its own technical accumulation and forward-looking layout in new materials, it has gradually entered into many application fields such as aerospace, new energy and national defense equipment, and has formed powder metallurgy brake pads, synthetic brake pads / brake shoes, resin based carbon fiber composite products, carbon / carbon ceramic composite products Aviation large metal structure processing and other four business segments.
The consumable properties of brake products are significant, and the annual market scale is expected to be about 4.5 billion yuan. Relying on independent research and development, the company has successfully achieved import substitution of powder metallurgy brake pads for high-speed railway EMUs, and occupies a place in the subdivided field. However, affected by the epidemic, the operation rate of high-speed railway has declined in recent two years, and the attribute of brake consumables is significant, which has a certain negative impact on the performance of the company. However, the trend of stable development of railway mileage still exists, and we believe that the profitability of the company's core products is still optimistic. The steady increase in the operating mileage of China's high-speed railway, the continuous improvement of the distribution density of EMUs, the continuous growth of passenger flow and the continuous upgrading of equipment technology all help to maintain the strong demand for EMUs and related supporting facilities in China. According to the calculation, we expect the annual market space of brake pads of high-speed railway multiple units to be about 4 billion in the future, the annual market space of railway locomotive brake pads / brake shoes to be about 150 million, and the annual market space of urban rail vehicle brake pads to be about Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) million.
Relying on the accumulation of technology in the field of new materials, find the right time to layout carbon carbon composites. The company has efficiently arranged a large number of carbon carbon composites used in the thermal field. So far, it has formed a production capacity of 2000 tons in Jiangyou, Sichuan, and will continue to release more production capacity locally in the future. With the gradual release of the demand of the photovoltaic industry and the wide application in high heat fields, carbon matrix composite products will also face a broad market space, which may bring the second growth curve to Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) in the future. After the expected production capacity of the company is fully implemented, we believe that the business may become a dual main industry development pattern with new materials as the core for the company together with brake pads.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: in the short term, the company looks at the performance increment brought by carbon carbon composites in photovoltaic thermal field, in the medium term, it looks at aerospace ablation resistant parts, and in the long term, it is a high-performance carbon ceramic actuator. We believe that the company's performance is expected to maintain rapid growth. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 244 / 377 / 533 million from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.40/0.84/1.19/share and PE of 49 / 23 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic repeatedly leads to the risk of decline in the operation rate of high-speed railway, the risk of decline in the unit price of brake pads, and the risk that the production capacity of carbon carbon composite materials is lower than expected.
