\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 702 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) )
Key points
Event: Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) released the announcement on the pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that the revenue of 1q22 will increase by 80% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 460560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52% – 85%, which is in line with the market expectation.
“Shede + Tuopai” continued to make efforts, and the company’s performance ushered in a good start. The company’s 1q22 revenue and profit growth achieved a good start, and the profit growth rate was not significantly higher than that of revenue, or it was caused by the increase of expenses in channel expansion. We believe that Q1’s achievements are due to: 1) 4q21 company stops goods to control the sales rhythm, accumulates brand potential energy and helps channels digest inventory; 2) Tuopai had a low base in the same period last year, while the current Tuopai brand potential energy was gradually released and the growth rate was considerable; 3) according to the feedback from the Baijiu company, the trend of consumption upgrading in many areas is obvious. After the star is in charge, the management is improved. The price belt has been raised from 320 yuan to 380 yuan in 2021, and the potential energy of the second high-end brand has been repaired, benefiting from the upgrading of consumption.
4q21 cargo control superimposes 1q22 considerable movable pins, and the inventory pressure is controllable. Thanks to the channel control of 4q21 and the active channel sales in early 2022, the current inventory pressure of shede channel is small, and the inventory in some regions is only half that of the same period last year. Some core markets such as northeast China are also facing the problem of insufficient delivery. Therefore, we judge that the current inventory pressure of shede is controllable. Under the concept of the new management, the company will not blindly pursue the pressure of goods on the channel. In March, the focus shifted to price and brand construction, and the channel strictly controlled inventory, so as to provide guarantee for the sustainable growth of willing.
The efficiency of fine management will be released, and the national expansion will be further promoted. Although willing to grow relatively slowly in the past few years, it has also achieved a good foundation in channel intensive cultivation and brand potential improvement. The high growth since 2021 is the beginning of the deepening of nationalization. Under more refined operation and management, shede series will further focus on breakthroughs in the core market and achieve market penetration in a dot form. At the same time, Tuopai assessment and incentive measures will be further optimized. Liuliang, T68 and other high-line light bottle wines may enter the stage of rapid investment promotion, and the nationalization and high growth of the company are expected to continue.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: in the market continuously disturbed by the epidemic, it is valuable to give up the performance growth in the first quarter. We are optimistic about the release of brand potential energy after the reform of give up management. The channel model of “platform operation + alliance store in store” and the gradual deepening of the concept of old wine are expected to ensure the promotion of the nationalization of the company, We maintained the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 at RMB 1.246/18.662483 billion, and the current share price corresponding to PE was 47 / 31 / 23 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic will reduce consumption intention, competition of secondary high-end Baijiu is intensified, and channel cost is not timely.
